ConstitutionDAO/Tether Market Overview: PEOPLEUSDT

• ConstitutionDAO/Tether (PEOPLEUSDT) fell 1.3% over 24 hours, closing near key support at $0.01805.
• Volatility surged midday ET, with a 15-minute candle forming a bearish engulfing pattern at $0.01840.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions at 27, but price remained below 20-period and 50-period moving averages.
• Volume spiked at 18:15 ET, confirming a sharp breakdown to $0.01810 after a failed rebound.
• Bollinger Bands contracted midday, followed by a 3.2% price expansion to the lower band, signaling increased bearish pressure.

ConstitutionDAO/Tether (PEOPLEUSDT) opened at $0.01821 on October 6, 12:00 ET, and fell to a 24-hour low of $0.01731 before closing at $0.01807 by 12:00 ET on October 7. The 24-hour OHLC was $0.01821 / $0.01849 / $0.01731 / $0.01807. Total volume reached 98,833,545.5 with a notional turnover of approximately $1,691,561. A sharp bearish move midday ET broke key resistance levels, confirming a shift in market sentiment.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a bearish engulfing pattern at $0.01840 during a high-volume 15-minute candle at 18:15 ET, confirming a bearish reversal. A doji appeared at $0.01823 later in the session, hinting at indecision. Key support levels identified include $0.01805, $0.01790, and $0.01770. Resistance levels are now at $0.01818, $0.01830, and $0.01843. A breakdown below $0.01805 would suggest further downside risk.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are currently bearishly aligned, with price below both at the close. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA sits at $0.01828, while the 100-period and 200-period MAs are at $0.01819 and $0.01813 respectively, indicating a mixed bearish trend. Price appears to be testing the 200-period MA as a potential support zone.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative after 16:30 ET, signaling a shift in momentum. The 15-minute RSI reached an oversold level of 27 by 19:00 ET, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, the lack of follow-through buying pressure indicates bearish dominance. A close above $0.01820 may trigger a RSI rebound, but a retest of $0.01805 could see RSI drop below 30 again.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a tight contraction around 04:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion to the lower band by 14:00 ET, indicating increased volatility and bearish pressure. Price is currently sitting just above the lower band, suggesting continued bearish momentum unless a strong reversal occurs. The next contraction could signal a potential reversal opportunity.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 18:15 ET to 10.6 million, confirming the breakdown below $0.01830. Notional turnover followed the volume pattern, peaking at $17,500 during the same period. A divergence was observed between price and turnover after 05:00 ET, where turnover dropped despite continued price declines, indicating a lack of conviction among sellers.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.01805 was tested and failed to hold during the midday breakdown. The 38.2% level at $0.01818 appears to be acting as a minor support. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from a prior bullish move is now at $0.01792, which could see further testing in the coming days.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions upon a confirmed breakdown below a key 15-minute Fibonacci level ($0.01805), with a stop loss above the 38.2% retracement level ($0.01818) and a target aligned with the next key support at $0.01790. This approach would leverage the bearish momentum observed in RSI and MACD while managing risk through defined stop and target levels. Such a strategy would need to be evaluated against historical volatility and volume patterns to ensure consistency across varied market conditions.