ConstitutionDAO/Tether Market Overview

• PEOPLEUSDT surged to a 24-hour high of $0.01672 before consolidating near $0.01667, forming a bullish continuation pattern.
• Bullish momentum accelerated in the morning, but RSI suggests short-term overbought conditions after 09:00 ET.
• Volatility expanded in the final 6 hours, with Bollinger Bands widening and volume spiking to $2.7M in the 16:00 ET session.
• A notable divergence emerged between price and turnover after 14:00 ET, signaling potential near-term caution.
• Key support at $0.01661 and resistance at $0.01676 appear to govern short-term direction, with a 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.01670.

The ConstitutionDAO/Tether pair (PEOPLEUSDT) opened at $0.01633 on September 26 at 12:00 ET and surged to a 24-hour high of $0.01673 before closing at $0.01671 on September 27 at 12:00 ET. The price range was $0.01631 to $0.01673. Total volume reached 149.3 million units, with a turnover of $2.46 million. The pair exhibited clear bullish momentum mid-day but consolidated in the latter hours with signs of internal pressure.

Structure & Formations

Price traced a bullish trend from $0.01631 to $0.01673, forming a strong ascending pattern. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged at $0.01673 in the 09:45–10:00 ET timeframe, followed by a bullish harami at $0.01664–$0.01666. The price found temporary support at $0.01661 (38.2% Fibonacci level) and tested resistance at $0.01676 (61.8% Fibonacci level). A key support level may now be forming at $0.01663, with $0.01655 as a deeper fallback.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs crossed above key price levels around $0.01665 and $0.01669, suggesting ongoing bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period SMAs indicate a slightly bearish bias, with the 200-period SMA still below current levels. This suggests a short-term bullish but longer-term mixed outlook.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line at 07:00 ET, reinforcing the bullish momentum observed in the morning hours. However, the RSI surged to overbought territory (above 60) around 09:30 ET and remained elevated through noon, indicating potential for a pullback. Divergences in RSI and price occurred in the late afternoon, with price hitting new highs but RSI failing to match, hinting at weakening momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly after 10:00 ET, with Bollinger Bands expanding to reflect the sharp price movements. The price tested the upper band at $0.01673 and the lower band at $0.01661. After 14:00 ET, the bands tightened slightly, suggesting a potential pause in volatility. Price currently sits just below the upper band, indicating a possible overbought condition.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to $2.7M during the 16:00–16:45 ET timeframe, coinciding with the highest price action of the day. This volume provided strong confirmation for the move. However, a divergence appeared between price and turnover after 14:00 ET, with price rising but turnover failing to match the previous levels, signaling caution for near-term continuation. Total notional turnover for the 24-hour period reached $2.46 million.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.01663 acted as a strong support, with the price consolidating in that range after 14:00 ET. The 61.8% level at $0.01670 was tested but failed to hold, with the pair pulling back slightly. The 100% Fibonacci extension is at $0.01677 and may act as a key target or resistance for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong volume and price confirmation in the morning hours and the subsequent divergence after 14:00 ET, a potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions on a close above $0.01663 with a stop-loss just below $0.01660 and a take-profit at $0.01672 or $0.01677. This setup leverages the bullish momentum confirmed by volume while acknowledging the Fibonacci and trendline levels as natural targets. The 15-minute chart’s RSI divergence could be used as a sell signal if RSI fails to confirm higher highs, reinforcing a risk-controlled approach.