ConstitutionDAO/Tether Market Overview

• ConstitutionDAO/Tether (PEOPLEUSDT) traded in a bearish consolidation, closing near intraday lows after a sharp decline.
• Key support levels were tested below 0.01670, with volume increasing during the 24-hour low formation.
• Volatility expanded in the overnight session as price tested 0.01650, with Bollinger Bands widening.
• RSI and MACD showed bearish divergence, with RSI approaching oversold levels suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.
• Fibonacci levels at 0.01662 and 0.01680 appear critical for near-term direction.

The ConstitutionDAO/Tether (PEOPLEUSDT) pair opened at 0.01733 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.01666 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was between 0.01734 (high) and 0.01615 (low), with a total volume of 117,738,220.09999999 and a notional turnover of $1.98M (approximate). The pair appears to be in a bearish consolidation phase, with price forming a large bearish engulfing pattern during the overnight hours.

Structure & Formations

The price action reveals a bearish structure that accelerated after 03:00 ET, with a strong breakdown forming from a key resistance level of 0.01690. Multiple bearish patterns were formed, including a morning star inversion and a bearish engulfing pattern during the 05:00–07:00 ET period. The price tested a prior support level of 0.01670 twice and failed to hold, suggesting bearish exhaustion could be setting up for a short-term bounce. A 24-hour doji formed near 0.01666, indicating indecision and potential for a reversal in the near term.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are bearishly aligned, with the 20-period line cutting below the 50-period line after 06:00 ET. This crossover suggests a bearish continuation in short-term momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period MA lines are in a bearish alignment, indicating a longer-term downtrend. The price is currently below both, with no signs of a reversal in the broader trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish in the early morning hours and remained below the signal line through most of the session, confirming the bearish momentum. The histogram showed a strong negative divergence as price fell to 0.01615. RSI reached an oversold level of 29, suggesting a potential bounce in the near term, though it’s not yet a clear reversal signal. The RSI divergence between price and momentum is bearish but could trigger a short-term rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly overnight, with the Bollinger Bands widening between 0.01650 and 0.01690. The price spent the majority of the session trading within the lower band and only briefly touched the middle band. This suggests low volatility and a potential for a breakout or reversal. The widening bands indicate an increase in uncertainty and possible accumulation by short-term traders.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 03:00–05:00 ET window, coinciding with the breakdown of the 0.01690 level. The highest volume was recorded at 0.01665, suggesting accumulation at the lower end of the range. Notional turnover followed a similar trend, with the largest single candle turnover occurring at 0.01665. No clear divergence between price and volume was observed, meaning the bearish move was confirmed by increased buying pressure at lower levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the 0.01734 (high) to 0.01615 (low) move, the key levels include 0.01662 (38.2%), 0.01675 (50%), and 0.01680 (61.8%). Price is currently near the 38.2% level and shows signs of consolidation. A break below 0.01662 could accelerate the downtrend, while a rejection at this level could lead to a short-term bounce toward the 0.01680 level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on the observed bearish engulfing pattern and RSI oversold levels could trigger a short-term reversal trade. Traders may consider a long entry near the 0.01665 level with a stop-loss below the 0.01650 level and a target at 0.01680. The use of moving averages and Fibonacci retracements as support levels could enhance the strategy’s efficacy, particularly if the price retests and holds above these levels. This approach aligns with the observed structure, volume behavior, and technical indicators, offering a data-driven entry point for the next 24 hours.