ConstitutionDAO/Tether Market Overview for 2025-09-26

• ConstitutionDAO/Tether (PEOPLEUSDT) opened at $0.01666 and closed at $0.01639, with a 24-hour range of $0.01675 to $0.01547.
• A bearish breakdown below key support at $0.01607 triggered a sharp decline, confirmed by a high-volume candle.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions after the 24-hour swing low, while volume spiked during the rebound.
• Bollinger Bands showed volatility expansion during the decline, with price near the lower band.
• The 20-period moving average on the 15-min chart acted as dynamic resistance during the rebound attempt.

ConstitutionDAO/Tether (PEOPLEUSDT) opened the 24-hour period at $0.01666 (12:00 ET - 1) and closed at $0.01639 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26. The pair reached a high of $0.01675 and a low of $0.01547, with total volume of 97.55 million and a notional turnover of $1.58 million. The 24-hour candlestick shows a large bearish body with heavy selling pressure after 18:00 ET, followed by a modest rebound and consolidation near the $0.01600–$0.01620 range.

The 15-minute chart reveals a breakdown pattern from the $0.01640–$0.01675 range, with a bearish engulfing candle confirming the move below key support at $0.01607. A doji near the $0.01600 level suggests hesitation in the short term. Resistance levels include $0.01635 and $0.01645, while supports are now $0.01600 and $0.01585. The 20-period moving average (0.01626) and 50-period (0.01624) crossed below the 15-minute close, reinforcing the bearish bias.

MACD lines crossed bearishly during the breakdown, with the histogram contracting after the rebound, indicating waning momentum. RSI bottomed at 25, signaling oversold conditions, but failed to trigger a strong reversal. Bollinger Bands widened during the sell-off, with price hovering near the lower band during the last three hours of the period. The 20-period standard deviation increased, pointing to heightened volatility.

Volume spiked during the breakdown candle (21.5 million at $0.01566), confirming the move lower. However, the subsequent rebound saw a smaller volume increase, suggesting limited conviction. Turnover also rose during the breakdown but declined on the rebound. A price-volume divergence may indicate a potential reversal in the near term. Fibonacci retracement levels from the $0.01675 high to the $0.01547 low place 61.8% at $0.01585 and 38.2% at $0.01633—both of which appear to be key levels for near-term action.

The backtesting strategy leverages a combination of the 50-period moving average crossover and RSI divergence as entry signals. When the 15-minute close crosses below the 50-period MA and RSI falls below 25 with a price-volume divergence, the strategy enters a short position. Stops are placed above the 20-period MA or the next Fibonacci level, with targets at the next support or 61.8% retracement level. The 24-hour action aligned closely with this logic, with the breakdown and RSI bottoming forming a valid signal. However, the lack of follow-through volume on the rebound suggests the setup may not be fully confirmed until a clear breakout or breakdown from $0.01600–$0.01620 occurs.