Constellation Energy Drops 4.3% as Technicals Signal Bearish Momentum Below $304

Constellation Energy (CEG) declined 4.31% in the latest session, marking two consecutive down days with a cumulative 4.43% loss. This recent weakness prompts a multi-dimensional technical assessment.
Candlestick Theory
The current session formed a long red candle after the previous day’s bearish engulfing pattern near $342, signaling rejection at resistance. Key support now rests at the May swing low of $284.40, with resistance at $310–$313. The breach below $304 confirms immediate bearish momentum, potentially targeting the $290 psychological level.
Moving Average Theory
Price recently crossed below the 50-day SMA ($300–$305), suggesting short-term trend deterioration. The 100-day SMA ($275–$280) and 200-day SMA ($240–$245) remain ascending, upholding the broader uptrend. However, death cross risk emerges if the 50-day sinks below the 100-day amid continued selling pressure.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows a bearish crossover with histogram bars deepening negatively, confirming weakening momentum. KDJ readings (K:37, D:42, J:27) are approaching oversold territory but lack reversal signals. Both oscillators align in signaling near-term downside bias, though exhaustion may develop near $290.
Bollinger Bands
Bands expanded sharply during the June volatility spike to $342, reflecting increased instability. Price now hugs the lower band, indicating persistent selling pressure. The 20-day average ($305) caps upside attempts, while the 8% band width (elevated vs. April’s 5%) implies volatility may persist before contraction stabilizes price action.
Volume-Price Relationship
Distribution is evident as the two down days (June 3–4) recorded higher volume (10.7M and 4.95M shares) than the preceding up day (June 2, 2.1M shares). This volume divergence confirms capitulation near $310, diminishing confidence in recovery momentum. Volume must resurge on any rebound to validate sustainability.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (40) fell from neutral to near-oversold, but its slope remains downward with no bullish divergence. While approaching oversold thresholds, the lack of positive momentum divergence suggests caution. Historically, RSI reversals below 35 preceded rallies (e.g., May 21, July '24), warranting monitoring near $295.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the 52-week low ($155.60 on August '24) and high ($342), key Fibonacci levels are: 23.6% ($285), 38.2% ($269), and 50% ($249). Price now tests the 23.6% support ($285–$290), a critical confluence with the May pivot. Failure here opens the 38.2% retracement at $269, which aligns with the 100-day SMA and March consolidation zone.
Confluence & Divergence
Confluence exists around $285–$290, combining Fibonacci support, April swing highs, and the 100-day SMA. However, bearish divergences persist: MACD/KDJ momentum deterioration opposes the higher-high price structure in May–June. This suggests the uptrend requires consolidation before resuming. Volume-backed defense of $285 is critical for bullish invalidation; failure may accelerate selling toward $269.