Conocophillips Surges 4.62% as Bullish Technical Indicators Align with Fibonacci Levels

Conocophillips (COP) recently surged 4.62% in the most recent session, marking a significant reversal from prior volatility. This sharp move follows a consolidation phase between $90.76 and $94.96, with key support levels at $91.81 and $90.76, and resistance at $93.43 and $94.96. The candlestick pattern suggests a potential bullish breakout, with a long lower shadow on the preceding session’s bearish candle indicating rejection near $90.76. However, the recent strong close near $94.96 may establish a new short-term support level, suggesting buyers are asserting control.
Moving Average Theory highlights a bullish alignment: the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages are likely converging above the 200-day line, with the price currently trading above all three. A golden cross (50-day crossing above 200-day) may reinforce the uptrend, while the 100-day line acts as a dynamic support. The 50-day line is likely near $93.00–$94.00, aligning with the recent consolidation range. Divergence between the 50-day and 100-day lines could signal a slowdown if the 100-day lags, but the current slope of the 50-day suggests momentum remains intact.

MACD and KDJ indicators conflate bullish signals. The MACD histogram is likely expanding above the zero line, with the fast line crossing above the slow line, confirming a short-term bullish bias. The KDJ stochastic oscillator may show overbought conditions (K-line near 80+), suggesting potential near-term exhaustion, but the absence of a bearish crossover between the K and D lines reduces immediate reversal risk. The RSI, at 70+, reinforces overbought territory, though a divergence warning would require confirmation of a lower high in price with a higher RSI high—a scenario not yet evident in the data.
Bollinger Bands illustrate heightened volatility, with the price near the upper band and the 20-day SMA. The bands have expanded after a period of contraction in late December 2024, indicating a breakout phase. A sustained close above the upper band could signal a continuation of the uptrend, while a retest of the middle band ($93.00–$94.00) may offer a probabilistic entry point for further gains.
Volume-Price Relationship validates the recent surge: the session’s $909.9 million volume is among the highest in the dataset, confirming strong conviction in the price action. However, declining volume on subsequent up sessions could indicate weakening momentum. Conversely, if volume remains elevated during consolidation, it may suggest buyers are accumulating at key levels.
Fibonacci Retracement levels derived from the December 2024 low ($89.29) to the January 2025 high ($106.1) suggest critical zones: 23.6% at $98.00, 38.2% at $96.50, and 61.8% at $94.00. The recent close near $94.96 aligns with the 61.8% level, suggesting a potential pullback target. A break below $93.43 (the 78.6% level) may trigger deeper corrections toward $91.81, but the current price action suggests buyers are defending this zone.
Confluence points between candlestick patterns, moving averages, and MACD confirm a high-probability bullish scenario. Divergences between the RSI and price action could emerge if the RSI fails to make higher highs despite a rising price, but this is not yet evident. The Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci levels provide probabilistic targets for both continuation and consolidation.

The analysis suggests that Conocophillips is in a strong short-term uptrend, supported by technical and volume confluence. While overbought indicators caution against immediate overextension, the alignment of moving averages, MACD, and Fibonacci levels implies the trend may persist unless key support levels are breached. Investors should monitor volume sustainability and RSI behavior for early signs of exhaustion or continuation.