ConocoPhillips Surges 4.1% on Bullish Momentum: What’s Fueling the Rally?

Summary
• ConocoPhillips (COP) surges 4.0993257% to $97.26, hitting a 52-week high of $97.41
• Intraday range spans $93.56 to $97.41, with turnover at 6.0M shares
• Sector peers like Exxon Mobil (XOM) lag with a 1.23% gain
• Technicals show a bullish crossover with MACD at 1.00 and RSI at 63.58
Today’s sharp rally in ConocoPhillips reflects a confluence of technical strength and sector-specific catalysts. The stock’s break above key resistance levels and robust options activity suggest a strategic shift in investor sentiment, warranting closer scrutiny of its near-term trajectory.

Bullish Technicals and Sector-Specific Optimism Drive COP’s Surge
ConocoPhillips’ 4.1% intraday gain is driven by a combination of technical momentum and sector-specific optimism. The stock has pierced above its 30-day moving average (89.10) and 200-day average (92.30), triggering algorithmic buying and retail participation. Meanwhile, recent sector news highlights Saudi Arabia’s push for OPEC+ production increases and India’s continued Russian oil imports, which collectively signal sustained demand for hydrocarbons. These factors, paired with COP’s recent inclusion in the Monkey Island LNG project, have amplified investor confidence in its near-term operational scalability.

Options and Technicals: Navigating COP’s Bullish Breakout
• MACD: 1.0028 (bullish crossover), RSI: 63.58 (neutral), 200D MA: 92.30 (below price)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 94.32 (upper), 89.81 (middle), 85.30 (lower)
• Key Levels: 92.50 (200D support), 97.41 (intraday high), 106.2 (52W high)

Top Options Picks:
• COP20251219P94 (Put):
- Strike: $94, Expiry: 12/19, IV: 29.65%, Leverage: 142.97%, Delta: -0.237, Theta: -0.053, Gamma: 0.065, Turnover: 144,896
- Why: High leverage and moderate delta position this put for capital preservation if COP consolidates near $94.50.
- Payoff: At 5% upside (97.26 → 102.12), intrinsic value = $8.12 per share.
• COP20251219P96 (Put):
- Strike: $96, Expiry: 12/19, IV: 27.96%, Leverage: 79.04%, Delta: -0.381, Theta: -0.052, Gamma: 0.085, Turnover: 103,962
- Why: Strong gamma and liquidity make this put ideal for hedging against a pullback to $93.50.
- Payoff: At 5% upside (97.26 → 102.12), intrinsic value = $6.12 per share.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider COP20251219P94 into a bounce above $97.41, while hedgers should target COP20251219P96 as a safeguard against volatility.

Backtest Conocophillips Stock Performance
The performance of COP after a 4% intraday surge from 2022 to the present has been mixed. The win rate is 42.19%, with 27 winning trades and 37 losing trades. The average hold days is not available.

Positioning for COP’s Next Move: Key Levels to Watch
ConocoPhillips’ 4.1% surge reflects a technical breakout and sector-driven optimism, but sustainability hinges on its ability to hold above $94.50. Investors should monitor the 52-week high of $106.2 and the 200-day moving average (92.30) as critical benchmarks. Meanwhile, Exxon Mobil’s 1.23% gain underscores the sector’s mixed momentum. For COP, the path forward depends on maintaining its bullish trajectory and avoiding a retest of the $93.56 intraday low. Act now: Buy COP20251219P94 for upside potential or COP20251219P96 to hedge against a pullback.