ConocoPhillips Surges 3.87% Amid Workforce Cuts and Analyst Optimism: Is This a Buying Opportunity?

Summary
• ConocoPhillips (COP) trades at $90.791, up 3.87% intraday
• Intraday range: $89.15–$90.99, with 296,571 shares traded
• Analysts split on workforce cuts: Susquehanna maintains a Buy, while Capital One cuts EPS forecasts

ConocoPhillips is surging amid a storm of conflicting signals. A 20–25% workforce reduction, announced as a cost-cutting measure, has triggered both bearish and bullish reactions. While environmental concerns and OPEC+ risks weigh, analysts like RBC Capital and Wells Fargo remain cautiously optimistic. The stock’s 3.87% rally defies broader market jitters, with technical indicators and options activity hinting at a pivotal moment for energy investors.

Workforce Cuts Spark Divergent Investor Sentiment
ConocoPhillips’ 3.87% intraday surge stems from a mix of bearish and bullish catalysts. The company’s announcement of a 20–25% global workforce reduction—impacting thousands of jobs—has triggered immediate sell-side skepticism, with Capital One and Zacks slashing EPS forecasts. However, this move is framed as a strategic pivot to boost margins amid weak oil prices. Analysts like Susquehanna and RBC Capital argue the cuts align with long-term efficiency goals, while environmental groups raise regulatory risks over Alaska drilling plans. The stock’s rally reflects a tug-of-war between cost-cutting optimism and fears of operational headwinds.

Energy Sector Mixed as Exxon Mobil Trails COP’s Gains
The broader energy sector remains fragmented. While ConocoPhillips surges, Exxon Mobil (XOM) lags with a 1.44% intraday gain. U.S. oil production growth is slowing due to capital discipline and infrastructure bottlenecks, per recent sector reports. COP’s aggressive restructuring contrasts with peers like EOG Resources and Devon Energy, which prioritize shareholder returns over production expansion. This divergence highlights COP’s unique positioning amid a maturing shale boom and shifting investor priorities.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on COP’s Volatility
• RSI: 30.24 (oversold)
• MACD: -2.10 (bearish), Signal Line: -1.595 (higher than MACD), Histogram: -0.501 (negative divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $99.75, Middle $91.56, Lower $83.37 (price near lower band)
• 200D MA: $94.29 (price below key support)

COP’s technicals suggest a short-term rebound from oversold levels, with the 200D MA acting as a critical resistance. The options chain reveals two high-conviction plays:

1. COP20251031C89 (Call Option)
• Strike: $89, Expiry: 2025-10-31
• IV: 22.94% (moderate), Leverage: 15.51%, Delta: 0.88 (high), Theta: -0.0633 (moderate decay), Gamma: 0.0605 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 15,802 (liquid)
• Why it stands out: High delta and gamma make this call ideal for a 5% upside move (targeting $95.33). With IV in the mid-range and strong liquidity, it balances risk and reward.

2. COP20251031C90 (Call Option)
• Strike: $90, Expiry: 2025-10-31
• IV: 33.11% (high), Leverage: 40.14%, Delta: 0.57 (moderate), Theta: -0.1217 (high decay), Gamma: 0.0831 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 45,921 (extremely liquid)
• Why it stands out: High leverage and turnover make this a top pick for aggressive bulls. A 5% move to $95.33 would yield a 182.5% payoff, leveraging COP’s rebound potential.

Action: Aggressive bulls should prioritize COP20251031C90 for a breakout above $90.79. Conservative traders may use COP20251031C89 as a lower-risk entry if the 200D MA ($94.29) holds.

Backtest Conocophillips Stock Performance
I attempted to run the automated “event back-test” for all 4 %+ intraday surges in Conoco­Phillips (COP.N) from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-23, but the event-back-test engine threw an internal coding error (“convert_statistics is not defined”). Because this is a module-side problem, simply retrying the same call is very likely to fail again.Two practical ways to move forward:1. Wait until the event-back-test module is fixed and rerun the request (fastest if you specifically need the full visual dashboard that module produces).2. Let me compute the key post-event statistics directly from the daily price data we already pulled. I can calculate, for each ≥4 % up-day: • the average/median return after 1, 3, 5, 10 and 20 trading days • hit-rates (percentage of positive returns) for those horizons • the optimal holding horizon (max average return) • the cumulative P/L of a simple strategy that buys the close of the surge day and sells after N days. These numbers cover 90 % of what the visual module shows and should answer the performance question.Please let me know which option you prefer (retry the module later, or proceed with an in-house calculation now).

COP’s Rebound: A Short-Term Rally or Strategic Turnaround?
ConocoPhillips’ 3.87% surge reflects a pivotal moment in its restructuring narrative. While workforce cuts and environmental risks linger, the stock’s technical rebound and options activity suggest near-term optimism. Watch the 200D MA ($94.29) as a key inflection point: a break above could validate the bullish thesis, while a retest of the 86.41–86.65 support zone would signal caution. Meanwhile, Exxon Mobil’s 1.44% gain underscores the sector’s mixed signals. For traders, COP20251031C90 offers a high-leverage play on a potential breakout, but patience is key as the market digests COP’s long-term efficiency goals.