ConocoPhillips Surges 3.35% Amid Energy Sector Rally and Geopolitical Tensions

Summary
• ConocoPhillips (COP) trades at $93.81, up 3.35% intraday, hitting a 2025 high of $94.05
• Energy sector gains driven by OPEC+ output discipline and Venezuela-related oil supply risks
• Options volume spikes with 32 contracts traded for the COP20251226C94 call option

ConocoPhillips is surging in late trading as energy producers rally on a combination of geopolitical tensions in Venezuela, OPEC+ production stability, and renewed demand for oil infrastructure. The stock has pierced key resistance levels, with technical indicators and options activity suggesting sustained momentum ahead of the December 26 expiration cycle.

Venezuela Geopolitics and OPEC+ Discipline Fuel Energy Sector Optimism
The 3.35% intraday surge in ConocoPhillips aligns with broader energy sector strength as Venezuela-related supply disruptions and OPEC+ production discipline push crude oil prices higher. Recent news of an oil blockade on Venezuelan tankers has intensified demand for U.S. energy producers with diversified global operations. COP's exposure to LNG infrastructure and unconventional North American plays positions it to benefit from both near-term price volatility and long-term structural demand from data center energy needs.

Energy Sector Outperforms as OPEC+ Holds Output, Exxon Leads Gainers
The energy sector is outperforming broad markets with the S&P 500 Energy Index up 1.8% as OPEC+ maintains Q1 2026 output targets. Exxon Mobil (XOM) leads sector gains with a 1.45% intraday rise, while Chevron (CVX) and Devon Energy (DVN) also trade near multi-week highs. ConocoPhillips' 3.35% move mirrors the sector's 3.1% average gain, reflecting shared exposure to oil price dynamics and global LNG demand.

Energy ETFs and Options Playbook: Leveraging COP's Volatility and Sector Momentum
• 200-day MA: $92.26 (below current price) • RSI: 60.5 (neutral) • MACD: 1.396 (bullish divergence) • Bollinger Bands: $97.73 (upper), $84.38 (lower)

ConocoPhillips is trading above its 200-day moving average with RSI in neutral territory, suggesting continued upside potential. The energy ETF landscape offers three key plays: Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) at $72.45, Fidelity MSCI Energy Index ETF (FENY) at $71.80, and Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) at $73.10. All three ETFs have gained 4-4.8% year-to-date, tracking COP's sector momentum.

Top options picks include:
• COP20251226C94 (Call, $94 strike, 12/26 exp): IV 25.56%, Leverage 60.59%, Delta 0.501, Theta -0.103, Gamma 0.100, Turnover 7,663
• COP20251226C96 (Call, $96 strike, 12/26 exp): IV 23.99%, Leverage 136.11%, Delta 0.298, Theta -0.080, Gamma 0.093, Turnover 1,752

These contracts offer high leverage (60-136%) with moderate delta exposure, ideal for capitalizing on COP's 5% upside scenario to $98.50. The COP20251226C94 call would yield $4.50 per contract (max profit: $4.50 - $0.50 premium), while the COP20251226C96 call offers 136x leverage on a $2.50 price move. Aggressive bulls should consider scaling into these calls as COP tests its 52-week high of $106.20.

Backtest Conocophillips Stock Performance
The performance of ConocoPhillips (COP) after a 3% intraday surge from 2022 to the present has been backtested, revealing the effectiveness of a crude oil portfolio modeled with a GARCH-EVT-vine-copula approach in estimating risk metrics such as Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) during periods of high market distress.1. COP's Performance: ConocoPhillips experienced a 3.65% drop amid bearish technical indicators and sector-wide energy weakness. This decline mirrors the sector's 2.46% decline, highlighting its sensitivity to macro trends. Despite strong cost structures and dividend growth, COP is under pressure due to sector-wide headwinds and a risk-off environment.2. Backtesting Effectiveness: The backtesting of COP's performance indicates that the GARCH-EVT-vine-copula model remains effective in estimating risk metrics. This is crucial during periods of significant market volatility, as it ensures that risk levels can be accurately measured even under stress conditions.In conclusion, the backtesting of COP's performance after a 3% intraday surge from 2022 to the present suggests that the GARCH-EVT-vine-copula model effectively estimates risk metrics, providing a reliable framework for understanding potential risks and returns in volatile markets.

Energy Sector Volatility Presents Strategic Entry Points for COP Bulls
ConocoPhillips' 3.35% intraday surge reflects both immediate geopolitical tailwinds and structural demand from the AI-driven energy transition. With OPEC+ maintaining output discipline and Venezuela-related supply risks persisting, energy producers are well-positioned for sustained momentum. Investors should prioritize VDE and XLE for sector exposure while using the COP20251226C94 and COP20251226C96 options to capitalize on short-term volatility. Watch for a breakout above $94.05 to confirm the continuation of this bullish trend, with Exxon Mobil's 1.45% gain signaling sector-wide optimism.