ConocoPhillips Surges 5.36% on Major Gas Discovery in Australia—What’s Fueling This Energy Giant’s Rally?

Summary
• ConocoPhillips (COP) surges 5.36% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $101.77.
• Charlemont-1 exploration well in Australia’s Otway Basin uncovers probable gas in three reservoirs.
• Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) contrasts with sector peers like Subsea7 (SUBCY) and Oceaneering (OII) at Zacks 1.

ConocoPhillips’ stock has ignited a dramatic 5.36% rally amid groundbreaking discoveries in Australia’s Otway Basin, where the Charlemont-1 well revealed probable gas in all three Waarre reservoirs. This surge outpaces the broader energy sector’s mixed performance, with Exxon Mobil (XOM) rising 3.99%. The stock’s intraday range—from $97.15 to $101.77—reflects renewed investor confidence in COP’s exploration prowess and its strategic position in global energy markets.

Australia's Otway Basin Gas Discovery Ignites COP's Bullish Surge
ConocoPhillips’ 5.36% intraday gain is directly tied to its recent exploration success in Australia’s Otway Basin. The Charlemont-1 well, operated in partnership with 3D Energi and Korea National Oil Corporation, encountered probable gas in all three Waarre reservoirs—C, B, and A—after overcoming high-pressure challenges. This discovery reinforces COP’s 51% stake in the VIC/P79 permit and aligns with its long-term strategy to expand low-cost, high-impact exploration projects. The news has positioned COP as a key player in Australia’s energy transition, with partners 3D Energi and KNOOC expressing optimism about the reservoir’s commercial potential.

Energy Sector Rally Gains Momentum as XOM Joins COP's Surge
The energy sector has seen a broad-based rally, with Exxon Mobil (XOM) rising 3.99% alongside COP’s 5.36% surge. This momentum reflects renewed investor appetite for energy stocks amid geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production adjustments. While COP’s exploration-driven gains are asset-specific, the sector’s collective strength underscores a shift in market sentiment toward energy security and inflation-linked assets. However, COP’s outperformance highlights its unique catalyst—Australia’s Otway Basin—compared to XOM’s broader upstream and downstream operations.

Options Playbook: Leveraging COP’s Bullish Momentum with High-Gamma Contracts
• MACD: 1.385 (above signal line 1.294), RSI: 56.4 (neutral), 200D MA: 92.00 (below price).
• Bollinger Bands: COP trading near upper band at $99.41, suggesting overbought conditions.
• Key Levels: 200D support at $91.57, 30D support at $96.62; 52W high at $106.20 as near-term resistance.

COP’s technicals signal a short-term bullish trend, with RSI and MACD indicating momentum. The stock’s 5.36% rally has pushed it toward its 52-week high, but the 200-day moving average remains a critical support level. For aggressive traders, the COP20260123C93 call option (strike $93, expiration 1/23) offers a 78.39% implied volatility and 14.34% leverage ratio, with a theta of -0.222 and gamma of 0.0225. A 5% upside to $106.71 would yield a $13.71 payoff. The COP20260123C92 call (strike $92, IV 85.93%, leverage 15.04%) also stands out, with a theta of -0.233 and gamma of 0.0202, offering a $14.71 payoff at $106.71. Both contracts benefit from COP’s high gamma and moderate delta (0.777–0.783), amplifying gains in a breakout scenario. Aggressive bulls should target a $106.20 close to trigger a 52-week high breakout.

Backtest Conocophillips Stock Performance
Backtesting the impact of a 5% intraday surge on COP from 2022 to the present is challenging due to the lack of qualifying events. The backtesting tool requires at least one date meeting the 5% surge criterion, but no such dates were found, leading to an error in computing statistics. To proceed, consider lowering the surge threshold to 3-5% to capture more events and make the backtest viable.

COP’s Rally Gains Steam—Act Now on High-Gamma Options Before 1/23 Expiry
ConocoPhillips’ 5.36% surge is underpinned by a high-impact gas discovery in Australia, positioning it as a key beneficiary of global energy demand. The stock’s technicals and options chain suggest a continuation of this momentum, with the COP20260123C93 and COP20260123C92 contracts offering leveraged exposure to a potential $106.20 breakout. Sector leader Exxon Mobil (XOM) rising 3.99% reinforces the energy sector’s strength. Investors should monitor COP’s 200D support at $91.57 and 52W high at $106.20. For a high-conviction trade, target the $106.20 level with the COP20260123C93 call before its 1/23 expiry.