ConocoPhillips Surges 2.98% Amid Venezuela Claims and Analyst Adjustments—What’s Fueling the Rally?

Summary
• ConocoPhillips (COP) trades at $99.34, up 2.98% intraday, hitting a 2026 high of $99.895.
• Piper Sandler cuts price target to $109 but maintains 'Overweight' rating, signaling 12% upside.
• Institutional ownership hits ~82.36%, with Primecap and Ameriprise boosting stakes by 66% and 31.4%, respectively.
• COP’s 3.33% dividend yield and $12B Venezuela arbitration claim draw investor attention.

ConocoPhillips is surging on a mix of institutional buying, geopolitical tailwinds, and a bearish crude outlook. The stock’s 2.98% rally has pushed it closer to its 52-week high of $106.2, fueled by renewed optimism over Venezuela claims and refining sector strength. With technicals aligning and options volatility surging, the energy giant is capturing headlines in a sector grappling with oil price uncertainty.

Venezuela Arbitration and Analyst Revisions Ignite Short-Term Optimism
The 2.98% intraday surge in ConocoPhillips stems from a confluence of factors: renewed focus on its $12 billion Venezuela arbitration claim, a bearish crude outlook from Piper Sandler, and institutional buying. The firm’s 'Overweight' rating, despite the $6 price target cut, underscores confidence in refining margins and crude differentials. Meanwhile, institutional investors like Primecap and Ameriprise added 66% and 31.4% to their stakes, signaling conviction in COP’s resilience amid a volatile oil market. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week high also amplifies speculative momentum.

Energy Sector Gains Momentum as COP Outperforms XOM
The Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sector is mixed, with ConocoPhillips outperforming sector leader Exxon Mobil (XOM), which rose 1.87%. While XOM’s refining tailwinds are acknowledged, COP’s unique exposure to Venezuela claims and higher dividend yield (3.33% vs. XOM’s 0.6%) position it as a more compelling short-term play. Analysts highlight COP’s refining sector strength and arbitration potential as key differentiators in a sector grappling with bearish crude forecasts.

Bullish Technicals and High-Leverage Options Signal Aggressive Entry
• MACD: 1.385 (above signal line 1.294), RSI: 56.4 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: $99.41 (upper), $94.45 (middle), $89.50 (lower)
• 200D MA: $92.00 (below current price), 30D MA: $94.09 (below), 100D MA: $92.25 (below)

Technical indicators confirm a short-term bullish trend, with COP trading above all major moving averages and within the upper Bollinger Band. The RSI at 56.4 suggests no overbought conditions, while the MACD histogram (0.091) indicates strengthening momentum. Key levels to watch: $99.41 (resistance) and $94.45 (support).

Top Options Picks:
• COP20260123C99: Call option with 30.79% implied volatility, 41.88% leverage ratio, delta 0.56, theta -0.1397, gamma 0.0775, turnover 41,717. High liquidity and moderate delta make this ideal for a 5% upside scenario (target $104.31).
• COP20260123C98: Call option with 34.62% implied volatility, 31.15% leverage ratio, delta 0.62, theta -0.1499, gamma 0.0662, turnover 7,770. Strong theta decay and gamma sensitivity position it for rapid gains if COP breaks $99.41.

Aggressive bulls should prioritize COP20260123C99 for a 5% upside play, leveraging its high gamma and liquidity. A breakout above $99.41 could trigger a cascade of call buying, amplifying short-term returns. For a more conservative approach, COP20260123C98 offers balanced exposure with lower volatility risk.

Backtest Conocophillips Stock Performance
The backtest of COP's performance after a 3% intraday surge from 2022 to the present is not currently available. However, using similar intraday surge backtesting methodologies as FTFT and UBS, COP may exhibit varying results due to distinct market dynamics and individual stock characteristics. It is advisable to await the completion of such a backtest specifically for COP or similar surges in COP's historical data to draw accurate conclusions.

Position for a Breakout: COP’s Rally Could Extend to $104.31
The 2.98% rally in ConocoPhillips reflects a perfect storm of geopolitical optimism, institutional backing, and refining sector strength. With technicals aligned and options volatility surging, the stock is primed to test its 52-week high of $106.2. Investors should monitor the $99.41 upper Bollinger Band and $94.45 support level. If COP breaks above $99.41, the COP20260123C99 call option could deliver 120% returns on a 5% price move. Meanwhile, sector leader Exxon Mobil’s 1.87% gain highlights the broader energy sector’s cautious optimism. Act now—positioning for a breakout before the Venezuela arbitration timeline tightens.