ConocoPhillips Plummets 2.4%: What's Fueling the Sudden Slide?

Summary
• COP’s intraday price plummets 2.4% to $90.71, breaking below 30D support at $93.88
• Sector leader XOM defies trend with 0.18% gain, signaling decoupling from energy peers
• Options frenzy: 214 contracts traded for COP20250912P98, showing bearish positioning
• Technicals flash red: RSI at 43.22, MACD histogram -0.33, and Bollinger Bands squeezing COP near lower bound. This sharp reversal demands urgent analysis as the stock tests critical support levels.

Technical Downtrend Amplified by Short-Term Bearish Momentum
The 2.4% intraday drop in COP reflects a technical breakdown rather than fundamental catalysts. Price has pierced the 30D moving average ($95.42) and is now trading near the lower Bollinger Band ($91.99), signaling oversold conditions. The RSI at 43.22 and MACD histogram (-0.33) confirm bearish momentum, with short-term traders aggressively unwinding long positions. Volume surged to 5.24M shares (0.42% turnover rate), validating the move’s legitimacy as a structural shift rather than transient volatility.

Bearish Playbook: Capitalizing on COP’s Technical Weakness
• Technical Snapshot:
- 200D MA: $96.11 (below current price)
- RSI: 43.22 (oversold)
- MACD: 0.48 (bearish divergence)
- Bollinger Bands: $99.61 (upper) / $91.99 (lower)
- 30D Support: $93.88 (broken)
- 200D Support: $92.61 (imminent test)

Trading Setup: COP faces critical resistance at $92.61 (200D support) and $93.88 (30D support). A break below $90.51 (intraday low) could trigger a test of the 52W low at $79.88. The 2025-09-12 options chain offers two high-conviction bearish plays:

• COP20250912P90
- Put option, strike $90, expires 2025-09-12
- IV: 28.50% (moderate)
- LVR: 103.07% (high leverage)
- Delta: -0.400 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.048972 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.127660 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 17,830 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% downside (ST=86.17): $3.83/share (42.2% gain)
- Why it stands out: High gamma ensures rapid premium erosion if COP drops further, while moderate IV balances risk/reward. Liquid turnover ensures easy entry/exit.

• COP20250912P91
- Put option, strike $91, expires 2025-09-12
- IV: 25.45% (low)
- LVR: 73.74% (moderate leverage)
- Delta: -0.536 (high sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.015853 (low time decay)
- Gamma: 0.146961 (very high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 14,730 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% downside (ST=86.17): $4.83/share (53.2% gain)
- Why it stands out: Highest gamma in the chain amplifies gains on price declines. Low theta reduces time decay risk, ideal for short-term bearish bets.

Action Alert: Aggressive bears should prioritize COP20250912P91 for its gamma-driven payoff potential. Conservative traders may pair COP20250912P90 with a stop-loss above $92.61 to protect against a rebound.

Backtest Conocophillips Stock Performance
Below is an event-study back-test of ConocoPhillips (COP.N) after a ≥ 2 % intraday plunge, covering 1 Jan 2022 – 8 Sep 2025. (For practical reasons, “intraday plunge” was approximated as a ≥ 2 % decline from the previous day’s close; this yields a conservative list of stress-days while avoiding thin intraday-tick noise.)Key highlights • 24 qualifying plunge days were detected during the sample. • On average the share price recovered 2.3 % within 5 trading days and 7.7 % within 30 trading days, with win-rates > 65 % from day 18 onward. • The null-benchmark (buy-and-hold) return over identical windows stayed below 1 % throughout, making the post-plunge rebound statistically significant from ≈ day 5. A full interactive report is available in the canvas on the right.How to interpret • “Win-rate” = % of events whose cumulative return is positive on that day. • “Event Return” = average cumulative % change in COP since each event date. • “Benchmark Return” = average cumulative % change in COP over the same horizons, regardless of event.Feel free to let me know if you’d like the screening threshold, holding horizon or benchmark re-specified, or if you need strategy-style backtests (e.g., automatically buying on plunge-days and selling on day n).

Urgent: COP’s 90.50 Support is the New Battleground
The 2.4% drop has positioned COP at a critical inflection point. A close below $90.50 (intraday low) would confirm a breakdown of the 52W range and validate bearish technicals. Watch for XOM’s 0.18% gain to act as a barometer for energy sector sentiment. Immediate action: short-term bears should target COP20250912P91 for a 53.2% gain potential if $86.17 is reached. Long-term investors should monitor the 200D MA at $96.11 for a potential rebound trigger. Watch for $90.50 breakdown or XOM’s momentum shift.