Conocophillips Plummets 4.35%: What's Fueling the Sudden Slide?

Summary
• Conocophillips (COP) slumps 4.35% to $94.68, breaking below 30D and 200D moving averages
• Sector leader Exxon Mobil (XOM) declines 2.43%, but COP’s drop outpaces peers
• Options frenzy: 259 contracts traded for COP20250912P94, signaling bearish bets

Conocophillips is under fire as its stock plummets to a 52-week low of $94.335, eroding $4.35 from its value in a single session. The move defies the oil sector’s moderate decline, with XOM’s 2.43% drop failing to anchor COP’s sharper selloff. Technical indicators and options data suggest a critical breakdown in momentum, with traders scrambling to hedge or capitalize on the volatility.

Technical Breakdown and Volatility Surge
Conocophillips’ intraday collapse stems from a confluence of technical triggers. The stock has pierced below its 30D ($95.43) and 200D ($96.37) moving averages, triggering algorithmic selling and stop-loss orders. The RSI (69.78) remains in overbought territory, but the MACD histogram (0.38) is diverging from price action, signaling waning bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands (Upper: $99.75, Lower: $91.40) have tightened, compressing COP into a volatile breakout pattern. This technical disarray has amplified short-term selling pressure.

Oil & Gas Sector Weakness Amplifies COP’s Slide
The Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sector is underperforming broader markets, with Exxon Mobil (XOM) down 2.43%. While XOM’s decline reflects broader energy sector concerns, COP’s 4.35% drop suggests additional catalysts. COP’s steeper selloff may stem from its higher leverage to oil price volatility compared to XOM’s diversified energy portfolio. The sector’s underperformance, however, validates the bearish momentum in COP’s options chain, where put volume dwarfs call activity.

Bearish Bets and Gamma-Driven Plays
• 200-day average: $96.37 (below current price)
• RSI: 69.78 (overbought)
• MACD: 1.27 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $91.40–$99.75 (tightening)

Conocophillips is trapped in a bearish technical crosshairs. Key support levels at $94.01 (30D) and $95.10 (200D) are critical for near-term direction. The 200D average ($96.37) remains a psychological hurdle; a break below $94.01 could trigger a test of the 52W low ($79.88).

Top Options Plays:
• COP20250912P95
- Strike: $95 | Expiration: 2025-09-12 | IV: 27.46% | Leverage: 54.23% | Delta: -0.496 | Theta: -0.0214 | Gamma: 0.0924 | Turnover: 14,675
- IV (27.46%): Mid-range volatility | Leverage (54.23%): High reward potential | Delta (-0.496): Moderate sensitivity to price moves | Gamma (0.0924): High sensitivity to gamma-driven acceleration
- This put option offers a 54.23% leverage ratio with a delta near -0.5, ideal for a 5% downside scenario. A 5% drop to $90 would yield a put payoff of $5.00 per contract, translating to a 100% gain on a $5.00 premium.

• COP20250912P94
- Strike: $94 | Expiration: 2025-09-12 | IV: 26.93% | Leverage: 75.93% | Delta: -0.4027 | Theta: -0.0301 | Gamma: 0.0914 | Turnover: 28,029
- IV (26.93%): Slightly lower volatility | Leverage (75.93%): Aggressive upside | Delta (-0.4027): Balanced sensitivity | Gamma (0.0914): High responsiveness to price swings
- This put offers a 75.93% leverage ratio with a delta of -0.40, making it ideal for a moderate bearish move. A 5% drop to $90 would yield a $4.00 payoff, translating to a 133% gain on a $3.00 premium.

Action: Aggressive bears should prioritize COP20250912P95 for its high leverage and liquidity. Conservative bears may pair COP20250912P94 with a short-term stop above $95.10.

Backtest Conocophillips Stock Performance

Critical Levels and Immediate Action Required
Conocophillips’ breakdown below $95.10 (200D) and $94.01 (30D) signals a high-risk phase. The RSI’s overbought reading and MACD divergence suggest further downside, but a rebound above $95.58 (middle Bollinger Band) could halt the selloff. Exxon Mobil’s 2.43% decline underscores sector-wide weakness, but COP’s sharper drop demands closer scrutiny. Act now: Short-term bears should target COP20250912P95, while bulls must defend $95.10 to avoid a test of the 52W low. Watch for a $94.01 breakdown or a reversal above $95.58 to dictate next steps.