ConocoPhillips Plummets 3.3% Amid Workforce Cuts and Asset Sales—Is This the Bottom?

Summary
• ConocoPhillips (COP) plunges 3.3% intraday to $95.22, its lowest since March 2025
• Company announces 20-25% global workforce reduction, impacting 2,600–3,250 jobs
• $1.3B Anadarko Basin asset sale and $500M capital spending cut signal aggressive cost-cutting
• Energy sector peers like Exxon Mobil (XOM) also under pressure as oil prices retreat

ConocoPhillips’ stock is in freefall as the energy giant unveils sweeping restructuring measures to combat falling oil prices and rising operational costs. With a 3.3% drop in a single session, the stock has erased nearly 14% of its value year-to-date. The move follows a $1.3 billion asset sale, a 20-25% workforce reduction, and a $500 million cut to 2025 capital spending. These actions, while aimed at preserving cash flow, have triggered investor skepticism about short-term profitability and operational stability.

Workforce Reduction and Asset Sales Spark Investor Fears
ConocoPhillips’ sharp decline stems from a combination of aggressive cost-cutting measures and market uncertainty. The company announced a 20-25% global workforce reduction, impacting 2,600–3,250 employees, as part of a broader restructuring plan. Simultaneously, it sold its Anadarko Basin assets for $1.3 billion and slashed 2025 capital spending by $500 million. These moves, while intended to bolster liquidity, have raised concerns about operational efficiency and long-term growth. CEO Ryan Lance emphasized the need for 'fewer roles' amid rising costs, which have increased by $2 per barrel since 2021. The market’s reaction reflects fears that these cuts could undermine production capacity and shareholder returns during a period of volatile oil prices.

Energy Sector Volatility Intensifies as XOM Also Retreats
The Energy sector is under broad pressure, with Exxon Mobil (XOM) down 2.9% intraday, mirroring COP’s decline. Both companies face similar headwinds from falling oil prices, which have dropped 11% year-to-date due to OPEC+ production increases and U.S. output growth. While XOM’s scale and diversified portfolio offer some resilience, its performance underscores the sector’s vulnerability to commodity price swings. COP’s aggressive cost-cutting contrasts with XOM’s focus on high-margin LNG projects, but both are navigating a challenging environment where margin compression and capital discipline are paramount.

Options and ETFs to Hedge or Capitalize on COP’s Volatility
• MACD: 0.238 (bullish divergence), Signal Line: -0.234 (bearish), Histogram: 0.472 (momentum)
• RSI: 71.7 (overbought), Bollinger Bands: $89.64–$99.16 (current price near lower band)
• 200D MA: $94.9979 (just below current price), 30D MA: $94.969 (support level)

COP’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias despite a long-term ranging pattern. The RSI at 71.7 indicates overbought conditions, while the MACD histogram’s positive divergence hints at fading momentum. Key support lies at the 200D MA ($94.9979) and the lower Bollinger Band ($89.64). Aggressive short-term traders may consider the COP20251003P95 put option (strike $95, expiration 10/3) and the COP20251003C94 call option (strike $94, expiration 10/3).

COP20251003P95 (Put):
• IV: 25.93% (moderate), Leverage Ratio: 98.32% (high), Delta: -0.4409 (moderate), Theta: -0.0121 (low decay), Gamma: 0.1363 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 18,796 (liquid). This put offers high leverage and gamma, ideal for a 5% downside scenario where payoff could reach $0.52 per share.

COP20251003C94 (Call):
• IV: 27.99% (moderate), Leverage Ratio: 46.52% (moderate), Delta: 0.6779 (moderate), Theta: -0.2391 (high decay), Gamma: 0.1147 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 15,290 (liquid). This call balances leverage and delta, suitable for a rebound above $94.50. A 5% upside would yield a $0.23 payoff.

Action: Aggressive bears may target COP20251003P95 if the stock breaks below $94.50. Bulls should watch for a rebound above $94.9979 (200D MA) before considering COP20251003C94.

Backtest Conocophillips Stock Performance
I attempted to retrieve every instance where ConocoPhillips (COP) fell more than 3 % from the day’s open to its intraday low, but the data-retrieval call returned an error (“Indicator error: 'numpy.ndarray' object has no attribute 'iloc'”). Possible work-arounds:1. Use daily OHLC data instead: • We would pull the raw open and low prices for each trading day from 2022-01-01 to today, then calculate the −3 % threshold ourselves before launching the event back-test. 2. Approximate the trigger with a simpler metric (e.g., a ≥ 3 % drop from the prior close to the current close). 3. If you already have a list of dates when COP dropped 3 % intraday, you could provide them and we can go straight to back-testing.Please let me know which approach you’d prefer (or share the event dates if you have them), and I’ll proceed accordingly.

COP’s Bottoming Process Begins—Watch for $94.50 Support
ConocoPhillips’ 3.3% drop reflects a strategic pivot to cost-cutting but also exposes near-term risks from oil price volatility and operational restructuring. The stock’s technicals and options activity suggest a short-term bearish bias, with key support at $94.50 (lower Bollinger Band) and resistance at $94.9979 (200D MA). Investors should monitor the $94.50 level for a potential rebound or breakdown. Meanwhile, sector leader Exxon Mobil (XOM, -2.9%) highlights the broader energy sector’s fragility. For those seeking directional exposure, COP20251003P95 offers high leverage for a downside bet, while COP20251003C94 provides a balanced call for a rebound. Watch for $94.50 support or a break below $94.00 to confirm the next move.