ConocoPhillips Plummets 3.2% on CEO Admissions and Restructuring Shockwave: What’s Next for Energy Giants?

Summary
• ConocoPhillips (COP) slumps 3.2% intraday, trading at $92.66 after opening at $94.18
• CEO Ryan Lance admits M&A overreach and cost mismanagement in town hall
• $22.5B Marathon Oil acquisition and $9.7B Concho buyout cited as key factors
• Sector peers like Exxon (XOM) also retreat, signaling broader energy sector turbulence

ConocoPhillips’ stock has plunged to a 52-week low of $92.13 amid a seismic restructuring plan announced by CEO Ryan Lance. The energy giant’s admission of strategic missteps—prioritizing acquisitions over cost discipline—has sent shockwaves through the market. With oil prices down 11% this year and OPEC+ ramping up production, the sector faces a perfect storm of margin compression and operational overhauls.

CEO’s Self-Inflicted Wound: M&A Overreach and Cost Overruns
ConocoPhillips’ 3.2% intraday drop stems directly from CEO Ryan Lance’s candid admission that the company’s aggressive M&A strategy—including the $22.5B Marathon Oil acquisition and $9.7B Concho Resources buyout—distracted from cost control. Lance acknowledged rising controllable costs to $13/barrel in 2024 (up from $11 in 2021), eroding margins as production growth stagnates. The $1B in savings from these deals now feels insufficient against a backdrop of $11 oil price declines this year and OPEC+ production surges. Investors are punishing the stock for its weakened competitive position and opaque restructuring timeline.

Energy Sector in Retreat: XOM’s 2.7% Slide Reflects Broader Pain
The Oil & Gas E&P sector is under pressure as Exxon Mobil (XOM) declines 2.7%, mirroring COP’s bearish trajectory. With oil prices down 11% year-to-date and OPEC+ increasing output to regain market share, margin compression is universal. Conoco’s $13/barrel cost base now lags peers like Chevron (CVX), which cut 15-20% of its workforce earlier this year. The sector’s 52-week low of $79.88 for COP underscores a broader shift toward cost discipline over growth-at-all-costs strategies.

Bearish Playbook: Options and ETFs for a Volatile Energy Sector
• 200-day MA: $96.21 (above) | 30-day MA: $95.51 (above) | RSI: 50.4 (neutral)
• MACD: 0.84 (bullish) | Histogram: -0.06 (bearish divergence) | Bollinger Bands: $91.91–$99.65
• Short-term bearish trend confirmed by 3.2% drop and 50.4 RSI neutrality

Key levels to watch: 200-day MA at $95.11 (critical resistance) and Bollinger lower band at $91.91 (imminent support). A 5% downside scenario (to $88.03) could trigger panic selling. For leveraged bearish exposure, consider COP20250912P92 and COP20250912P93:

• COP20250912P92 (Put): Strike $92, IV 26.07%, Leverage 85.05%, Delta -0.41, Theta -0.0335, Gamma 0.1087, Turnover 16,286
- High leverage and moderate delta position it to capitalize on a $92 breakdown
- 5% downside scenario yields $4.03 payoff (max profit at $88)
• COP20250912P93 (Put): Strike $93, IV 26.02%, Leverage 59.04%, Delta -0.52, Theta -0.02, Gamma 0.1114, Turnover 20,668
- Strong liquidity and high gamma make it ideal for a sharp selloff
- 5% downside scenario yields $5.03 payoff (max profit at $88)

Aggressive bears should target a breakdown below $92, with COP20250912P92 offering the highest reward/risk ratio. A 5% move to $88.03 could see these puts surge 160–200%.

Backtest Conocophillips Stock Performance
Below is the event-study back-test for ConocoPhillips (COP.N) when the share price fell by at least 3 % in a single trading day between 1 Jan 2022 and 5 Sep 2025. (For data availability reasons the trigger was defined as a ≥ 3 % drop in the daily close versus the previous close; this is a close proxy for an intraday plunge and is widely accepted in event studies.)Key take-aways (high-level):• Sample size: 7 events • Median next-day bounce: +0.7 % (win-rate ≈ 71 %) • No statistically significant drift within the first month; cumulative P&L flattens after day 10. • Best window in this sample was holding 22–24 trading days, with an average gain of ≈ 6 %. • Risk–reward remains moderate; the pattern is exploitable only with tight risk control.You can explore the full statistics and interactive charts in the module above.

Energy Sector at Crossroads: COP’s 3.2% Drop Signals a New Era of Cost Discipline
ConocoPhillips’ 3.2% decline is a wake-up call for energy investors. With CEO Lance admitting M&A overreach and costs rising to $13/barrel, the stock is likely to test the $91.91 Bollinger lower band in the near term. Sector leader Exxon (XOM) falling 2.7% reinforces the bearish narrative. Investors should prioritize short-term puts like COP20250912P92 and monitor COP’s 200-day MA at $95.11 for a potential bounce. A sustained close below $92 would validate a deeper correction, while a rebound above $95.78 could reignite long-term bullish momentum. Watch for COP’s restructuring details in mid-September to gauge the path forward.