ConocoPhillips Plunges 2.64% on Intraday Turmoil: What’s Fueling the Selloff?

Summary
• COP opened at $95.21, tumbled to an intraday low of $92.38, and closed at $92.82.
• Arkadios Wealth Advisors boosted holdings by 81.7% in Q1, now owning 40,439 shares valued at $4.25M.
• Earnings beat Q2 EPS by $0.04 at $2.09, but shares remain 20% below 52W high of $116.08.

ConocoPhillips faced a sharp intraday selloff despite a strong earnings report and institutional buying in Q1. The stock’s 2.64% drop to $92.82 highlights investor uncertainty amid mixed signals from technical indicators and sector dynamics. With OPEC+ meeting expectations and natural gas price volatility looming, COP’s near-term direction hinges on key support levels and options activity.

Intraday Volatility Amid Earnings and Institutional Activity Uncertainty
ConocoPhillips’ 2.64% intraday drop to $92.38 reflects profit-taking after a Q2 earnings beat and a surge in institutional ownership. Despite a $2.09 EPS result exceeding estimates and a $16.18B revenue beat, the stock underperformed against its 52W high of $116.08. Technical indicators show a bearish divergence: the 200-day MA at $97.68 sits above current price levels, while RSI at 49.26 suggests neutral momentum. Options data reveals elevated implied volatility (IV) across the chain, with the COP20250808P90 put option showing a 83.64% price change ratio, signaling short-term bearish positioning. The selloff may reflect broader energy sector jitters tied to OPEC+ policy uncertainty and U.S. tariff concerns.

Energy Sector Turbulence as XOM Trails COP’s Slide
The Energy sector, led by Exxon Mobil (XOM), saw a -1.87% intraday decline, amplifying pressure on COP. While XOM’s drop stems from refining margin compression and LNG export challenges, COP’s selloff appears more tied to technical overbets. The sector’s underperformance aligns with broader market jitters over U.S. tariff plans and OPEC+ meeting outcomes. COP’s 2.64% drop outpaces XOM’s 1.87% decline, suggesting individual stock-specific factors—such as options expiration dynamics and short-term profit-taking—are amplifying the move.

Options Playbook: Leveraged Bets on COP’s Volatility
• 200-day MA: $97.68 (bearish divergence)
• 50-day MA: $91.64 (approaching support)
• RSI: 49.26 (neutral momentum)
• Bollinger Bands: $90.45 (lower band) to $98.23 (upper band)

COP’s price action near the 50-day MA and Bollinger lower band suggests a potential short-term rebound if the $90.45 level holds. For aggressive traders, the COP20250808P90 (put) and COP20250808C85 (call) offer leveraged exposure.

COP20250808P90 (Put)
• Code: COP20250808P90
• Type: Put
• Strike: $90
• Expiration: 2025-08-08
• IV: 39.45% (moderate)
• Leverage Ratio: 91.87% (high)
• Delta: -0.2887 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0674 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0630 (high sensitivity to price move)
• Turnover: 14,924 (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% Downside: $7.11 (max(0, $90 - $88.16)).
• This put offers high leverage and gamma for a 5% downside scenario, ideal for short-term bearish bets.

COP20250808C85 (Call)
• Code: COP20250808C85
• Type: Call
• Strike: $85
• Expiration: 2025-08-08
• IV: 50.55% (elevated)
• Leverage Ratio: 11.32% (moderate)
• Delta: 0.8868 (high sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.1693 (rapid decay)
• Gamma: 0.0275 (low sensitivity)
• Turnover: 45,400 (highly liquid)
• Payoff at 5% Downside: $0.00 (max(0, $88.16 - $85)).
• This call provides directional exposure with high liquidity, suitable for a rebound above $90.45.

Hook: Aggressive bulls may consider COP20250808C85 into a bounce above $90.45, while COP20250808P90 offers bearish leverage if support breaks.

Backtest Conocophillips Stock Performance
ConocoPhillips (COP) experienced a notable intraday plunge of -3% on July 31, 2025. Following this significant downturn, the stock's performance showed a robust recovery and even surpassed initial levels. Here's a detailed analysis of COP's performance in the aftermath of the intraday plunge:1. Strong Recovery: Despite the -3% drop, COP's stock price rebounded strongly, gaining 7.72% over the past month. This recovery was bolstered by several strategic moves and market conditions.2. Extension of Water Agreement: The extension of its Water Gathering and Disposal Agreement with Aris Water Solutions, Inc. to 2040 signaled a stronger long-term partnership and operational stability. This extension likely boosted investor confidence, contributing to the stock's positive performance.3. Asset Optimization: Discussions about the potential sale of Oklahoma assets and the appointment of Ms. Kathleen McGinty to the board may have also supported investor confidence. These developments indicated a proactive approach to optimizing operations and reducing costs, which resonated positively with investors.4. Positive Earnings Outlook: While COP was expected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings for Q2 2025, the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter was $1.36 per share, representing a stable performance. The expected 5.6% increase in revenues further suggested a resilient business model.5. Low-Cost Asset Portfolio: COP's low-cost, high-quality upstream asset portfolio has proven capable of withstanding oil price volatility. This resilience is crucial in maintaining stable performance and cash flows, even during periods of low commodity prices.In conclusion, COP's performance after the -3% intraday plunge was impressive, driven by strategic extensions, operational optimizations, and a strong asset portfolio. These factors collectively contributed to a robust recovery and an overall positive trajectory for the stock.

Act Now: COP at Pivotal Intraday Crossroads
ConocoPhillips’ intraday selloff reflects a mix of technical exhaustion and sector-wide jitters. With the stock hovering near key support at $90.45 and elevated options activity, the immediate outlook hinges on whether $90 holds. The Energy sector’s underperformance, led by XOM’s -1.87% drop, suggests broader macro risks. Investors should monitor the 50-day MA and Bollinger lower band for a potential rebound. Action: Aggressive bulls may consider COP20250808C85 into a bounce above $90.45, while COP20250808P90 offers bearish leverage if support breaks.