Connect Biopharma Surges Over 30%—What’s Driving the Breakout?

• CNTB soars 31.2% to $1.5093, hitting a near-52W high of $1.56
• NDA filing for Rademikibart in China and positive EAACI clinical data ignite momentum
• Sector peers like CAPR crater 30%, contrasting with CNTB’s regulatory optimism

Connect Biopharma’s explosive intraday rally marks a dramatic reversal from its $1.105 low, fueled by strategic regulatory and clinical milestones. The stock’s ascent contrasts sharply with broader biotech volatility, underscoring the critical role of drug-specific catalysts in today’s market.

FDA NDA Filing and Clinical Data Sparks Biopharma Rally
Connect Biopharma’s 31.2% surge stems directly from its July 9 NDA filing for Rademikibart in China’s NMPA and recent EAACI conference presentations showcasing the drug’s efficacy in atopic dermatitis and asthma. The NDA submission signals commercial readiness for a high-demand therapy targeting inflammatory diseases, while Phase 2 data demonstrating rapid lung function improvements and reduced asthma exacerbations validate its best-in-class potential. These catalysts have positioned Rademikibart as a transformative asset in China’s dermatology market, driving investor confidence amid a sector fraught with regulatory setbacks.

Biotech Sector Mixed as Regulatory Outcomes Diverge
While CNTB surges, peers like Capricor (CAPR) plummet 30% after an FDA rejection, highlighting the sector’s reliance on drug-specific outcomes. Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), the sector leader, slips 1.89%, underscoring broader caution around single-asset biotechs. CNTB’s rise contrasts sharply with this environment, as its diversified pipeline progress and China-focused NDA submission offer a safer regulatory bet compared to single-trial dependencies plaguing other names.

Technical Bullish Signals Highlight Trading Opportunities
• RSI: 64.79 (bullish momentum, not overextended)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $1.208 (price exceeds upper band, signaling strong upward momentum)
• 30D MA: $0.94 (price trades 60% above support)

Technicals confirm a breakout above $1.50 with key resistance at the 52W high of $1.60. Aggressive bulls may target a pullback to $1.35-$1.40 (mid-Bollinger band) before chasing momentum. The ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) offers leveraged exposure to broader biotech gains, though CNTB’s fundamentals justify standalone positions.

Options analysis limited by sparse chain data, but hypothetical contracts suggest:
- CNTB250718C1.50 (if available): A 5% upside to $1.58 would yield a 33% return, leveraging delta sensitivity (Δ=0.45).
- CNTB250718P1.20 (if available): A downside scenario could capture volatility spikes, though current bullish momentum weakens put appeal.

Action Hook: Hold above $1.45? CNTB’s next catalyst—2026 COPD trial data—could propel it to $2.00. Fade below $1.25?

Backtest Connect Biopharma Stock Performance
The backtest of CNTB's performance after a 31% intraday surge shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is high at 47.92%, the 10-day and 30-day win rates are lower at 41.14% and 46.39%, respectively. The returns also show a decline from a 0.32% return over 3 days to a -1.14% return over 10 days, and further to a -0.44% return over 30 days, indicating a potential downturn following the initial surge.

Watch for Regulatory Milestones and Technical Breakouts
Connect Biopharma’s rally hinges on sustaining momentum toward its Q1 2026 COPD trial readout and NMPA approval timeline. Resistance at $1.60 and support at $1.25 define the near-term battleground, while Vertex’s (VRTX) -1.89% stumble underscores the need for CNTB to deliver on its pipeline. Investors should prioritize the July 18 expiry contracts for volatility plays and monitor China’s regulatory feedback post-NDA. With Rademikibart’s data integrity validated, this biotech’s ascent could outpace sector headwinds—if it can clear $1.60, $2.00 isn’t out of reach.