Congo's Cobalt Gambit: A Geopolitical Pivot in the EV Race

The electric vehicle (EV) revolution hinges on one irreplaceable truth: cobalt remains the Achilles’ heel of global battery supply chains. Now, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which supplies over 70% of the world’s cobalt, has pulled the trigger on an export ban, upending markets and rewriting the rules of resource diplomacy. As the DRC’s cobalt hydroxide prices have skyrocketed by 112.5% since February 2025, investors face a stark choice: ride the wave of scarcity-driven profits or brace for the geopolitical storm ahead.

The Export Ban: A Strategic Masterstroke or a Risky Gamble?

On February 22, 2025, the DRC imposed a four-month ban on cobalt hydroxide exports—a move designed to combat global oversupply and stabilize prices. With the review period for the ban nearing its May 25 deadline, the stakes could not be higher. The DRC’s Minister of Mines, Kizito Pakabomba, has framed the policy as a step toward “value-added beneficiation,” shifting the nation from raw material exporter to processor of high-value cobalt metal. This pivot targets sectors like superalloys and supercomputers, where refined cobalt commands premium pricing.

But the ban’s immediate impact is undeniable: cobalt hydroxide prices have surged to $11.80/lb CIF China, from $5.60/lb in early 2025. . Analysts warn that as global cobalt inventories dwindle—already down 25% from 2024—prices could climb further, destabilizing EV manufacturers reliant on DRC supply.

Geopolitical Chess: DRC-Indonesia Alliances and the U.S. Playbook

The DRC’s move is not an isolated act. In tandem with Indonesia—a nickel-rich nation now eyeing cobalt regulation—the DRC seeks to mimic OPEC-style price control over critical minerals. This alliance could tighten supply even further, creating a cobalt cartel that reshapes EV economics.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is scrambling to counter China’s dominance in cobalt refining. Recommendations include reforming the Dodd-Frank Act’s conflict minerals rules, which have deterred investment in DRC mining, and leveraging U.S. agencies like the Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to fund local processing infrastructure. For investors, this opens opportunities in companies partnering with the DRC on beneficiation projects or in U.S. firms securing alternative cobalt sources.

Strategic Diversification: The Only Way to Win

The DRC’s ban underscores a brutal reality: cobalt concentration in one unstable region is a systemic risk. Investors must act now to diversify exposure:

1. Mine the Margins: Bet on miners with DRC exposure but also cobalt assets elsewhere. .

2. Beneficiation Plays: Back firms advancing cobalt refining in the DRC, such as those partnering with local governments or U.S. agencies.

3. Recycle or Die: Invest in battery recycling startups like Redwood Materials or American Manganese Inc., which extract cobalt from spent EV batteries.

4. Cobalt Alternatives: Companies developing low-cobalt or cobalt-free battery chemistries—such as Tesla’s iron-phosphate cells or QuantumScape’s solid-state tech—are now critical hedges.

Immediate Action: The Clock is Ticking

The DRC’s review window closes in days. If the ban is extended or deepened, cobalt prices could hit $15/lb by Q4 2025—a level that would force EV manufacturers to either absorb costs or slash margins. For investors, the window to capitalize on this volatility is narrow:

• Short-term: Buy cobalt futures or ETFs like the Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT) to capture price spikes.
• Long-term: Invest in miners with DRC partnerships (e.g., China Molybdenum’s Tenke Fungurume mine) and U.S. infrastructure plays like DFC-backed projects in Africa.

Conclusion: The New Mineral Order

The DRC’s cobalt ban is not just a trade policy—it’s a geopolitical realignment. As the EV arms race intensifies, the nation has signaled its intent to wield its mineral wealth as a lever of power. For investors, the message is clear: diversify supply chains or risk obsolescence. The time to act is now—before the next cobalt shock reshapes the automotive industry forever.