Congo's Cobalt Export Rebound and Its Impact on the EV Supply Chain

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has long held a stranglehold over the global cobalt market, producing over 70% of the world's supply and shaping the trajectory of electric vehicle (EV) battery production. In October 2025, the DRC replaced its temporary export ban on raw cobalt with a quota system designed to stabilize prices and assert strategic control over its critical mineral resources. This policy shift has sent ripples through the EV supply chain, creating both opportunities and risks for investors in critical minerals and battery metals.

Strategic Quotas and Price Stabilization

The DRC's new export quota system, effective October 16, 2025, allocates annual cobalt export allowances based on companies' historical production and shipment data from the past three years, according to a DiscoveryAlert analysis. For the remainder of 2025, the government has capped exports at 18,125 tonnes, with annual quotas rising to 96,600 tonnes in 2026 and 2027, according to a NAI 500 report. This move follows a February 2025 export ban that temporarily stabilized prices after a years-long slump, during which cobalt prices fell to $10 per pound (or $22,000 per tonne) in early 2025, as noted in the DiscoveryAlert analysis. By October 2025, prices had rebounded by 90%, reaching $19 per pound ($41,890 per tonne), reflecting the DRC's ability to manipulate supply to influence global pricing (DiscoveryAlert analysis).

The quota system excludes artisanal miners, focusing instead on large-scale producers like China Molybdenum Company (CMOC) and Glencore, which together accounted for 82,021 tonnes of DRC cobalt exports in 2024, according to a Bankable Africa report. By prioritizing transparency and curbing illegal exports, the DRC aims to balance market stability with long-term economic gains. However, the quotas-set below recent production levels-signal an intentional effort to constrain supply, potentially creating artificial scarcity to prop up prices, as discussed in the NAI 500 report.

Market Dynamics and EV Supply Chain Implications

The DRC's dominance in cobalt production has made it a linchpin for the EV industry, which relies on the metal for high-energy-density NMC (nickel-manganese-cobalt) batteries used in premium vehicles. Despite growing adoption of lower-cobalt alternatives like LFP (lithium iron phosphate) batteries, cobalt remains indispensable for long-range EVs, according to the Bankable Africa report. The quota system, however, introduces volatility for manufacturers. With DRC exports capped at 96,600 tonnes annually for 2026–2027-well below the 193,936 tonnes exported in 2024 per the Bankable Africa report-suppliers face allocation risks and potential bottlenecks.

For investors, this dynamic creates a bifurcated landscape. DRC-based producers like CMOC and Glencore may struggle under tighter quotas, as their ability to export is now tied to rigid caps rather than market demand, as noted in the NAI 500 report. Conversely, non-DRC producers and recyclers stand to benefit from higher prices and reduced competition. Companies with diversified cobalt sources or advanced recycling capabilities-such as those in North America and Europe-are positioned to capitalize on the DRC's strategic overreach, a point highlighted by the DiscoveryAlert analysis.

Long-Term Investment Opportunities

The DRC's policy shifts also highlight the importance of supply chain resilience. While the country is projected to account for 48% of global cobalt supply growth by 2030, according to the Bankable Africa report, its regulatory unpredictability underscores the need for diversification. Investors should prioritize firms investing in alternative battery chemistries, such as LFP, which reduce cobalt dependency, and those advancing recycling technologies to mitigate supply chain risks.

A would illustrate the market's sensitivity to DRC policy changes.

Strategic Positioning for Investors

For critical minerals investors, the DRC's quota system represents both a cautionary tale and an opportunity. While the country's strategic control over cobalt offers short-term price upside, it also introduces geopolitical and operational risks. A balanced portfolio should include:
1. DRC-focused producers with strong government relationships (e.g., CMOC), though these carry regulatory exposure.
2. Non-DRC cobalt miners and recyclers, which benefit from tighter supply and higher prices.
3. EV manufacturers with diversified battery chemistries or in-house recycling capabilities to hedge against cobalt volatility.

The DRC's ability to act as a "swing producer" in the cobalt market-adjusting quotas to influence prices-means investors must remain agile. As the EV industry transitions toward sustainability, the interplay between cobalt scarcity, recycling innovation, and geopolitical strategy will define the next phase of the critical minerals market.