Congo's Cobalt Export Policy Shift and Its Impact on the Global EV Supply Chain: Strategic Investment Opportunities in Cobalt-Linked Equities and Commodities

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has long held a pivotal role in the global cobalt market, producing over 70% of the world's supplyDRC Extends Cobalt Export Ban Amid Global Supply Squeeze and Rising Prices^[1]. In February 2025, the DRC imposed a four-month export ban on cobalt hydroxide and carbonate to address oversupply and stabilize prices, which had fallen to a nine-year low of $10 per poundCongo to End Cobalt Export Ban in October, Introduces Quotas^[2]. By June 2025, the government extended the ban for an additional three months, pushing the policy review date to September 2025DRC Considers Future of Cobalt Export Ban as September Deadline Approaches^[3]. This strategic move has sent ripples through the global electric vehicle (EV) supply chain, creating both volatility and opportunities for investors in cobalt-linked equities and commodities.

Market Impact: Price Volatility and Supply Chain Uncertainty

The DRC's export restrictions initially triggered a 50% surge in cobalt prices, with refined metal prices reaching $33,300 per tonne by mid-2025Congo to End Cobalt Export Ban in October, Introduces Quotas^[2]. However, prices stabilized around $15 per pound by September 2025 as global inventories absorbed the reduced supplyDRC Considers Future of Cobalt Export Ban as September Deadline Approaches^[3]. While this volatility has disrupted EV manufacturers and battery producers, it has also incentivized downstream players to accelerate inventory management and diversify sourcing strategiesDRC Cobalt Export Ban: Global Market Impact & Supply Chain^[4].

The policy shift has also exposed the DRC's growing influence over global cobalt markets, akin to OPEC's control over oilDRC Extends Cobalt Export Ban Amid Global Supply Squeeze and Rising Prices^[1]. By curbing raw material exports and promoting local processing, the DRC aims to capture higher value from its resources. However, challenges persist, including the risk of cobalt-free battery technologies and environmental concerns tied to artisanal miningThe Democratic Republic Of Congo Extends The Suspension Of Cobalt Exports^[5].

Strategic Investment Opportunities

Equities: Glencore, BHP, and Wheaton Precious Metals

Glencore (GLEN), the world's largest cobalt producer, has emerged as a key beneficiary of the DRC's policy. The company reported a 44% increase in cobalt production for Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024First Quarter Production Report 2025 - glencore.com^[6], though it has stockpiled output due to export restrictions. Glencore's stock price rose 16% in September 2025 as investors anticipated a transition to a quota systemMega Mining Mergers Valued At $315 Billion Taking Shape^[7].

BHP Group (BHP) and Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) also stand to gain. BHP's nickel operations intersect with cobalt supply chains, while Wheaton's cobalt streaming agreement with Vale's Voisey's Bay mine provides exposure to rising demand4 Cobalt ETFs to Consider in 2025^[8]. Wheaton's stock surged 61% year-to-date in September 2025, driven by strong operational resultsWheaton Precious Metals (WPM) Stock Price & Overview^[9].

ETFs: ION, VAW, and BATT

For diversified exposure, investors can consider ETFs such as the ProShares S&P Global Core Battery Metals ETF (ION), which tracks companies mining cobalt, lithium, and nickel. ION delivered a 46.43% total return in the past year as of September 2025ION ETF Stock Price & Overview^[10]. The Vanguard Materials ETF (VAW), with broader materials sector exposure, offers a more conservative bet, while the Amplify Lithium & Battery Technology ETF (BATT) focuses on the lithium-ion battery industry, with cobalt stocks comprising 3.6% of its portfolioAmplify ETFs - BATT^[11].

Future Outlook: Quotas and Market Rebalancing

By September 21, 2025, the DRC announced it would replace the export ban with a quota system starting October 15, 2025Congo considers cobalt export ban extension, quota plan faces delays^[12]. Under this framework, exports will be allocated pro-rata based on historical volumes, aiming to reduce global inventories to one month of demandCongo considers cobalt export ban extension, quota plan faces delays^[12]. While this system is expected to stabilize prices, it introduces new uncertainties, including allocation disputes and logistical challengesDRC Cobalt Export Ban Drives Price Surge for Processing^[13].

Analysts project that cobalt demand will grow at 11% annually from 2024 to 2030, driven by EV adoptionCOMMODITIES 2025: Cobalt Market Oversupply to Ease in 2025^[14]. However, the rise of lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries, which use little to no cobalt, could temper demand9 Best Cobalt Stocks to Buy Now - Yahoo Finance^[15]. Investors must balance these dynamics with the DRC's policy trajectory and geopolitical risks, such as U.S. tariffs on Chinese battery materialsCOMMODITIES 2025: Cobalt Market Oversupply to Ease in 2025^[16].

Conclusion

The DRC's cobalt export policy shift underscores the mineral's strategic importance in the EV transition. While short-term volatility persists, the move toward quotas and local processing creates long-term value for equities and ETFs tied to cobalt. Investors should prioritize companies with diversified portfolios and strong balance sheets, such as Glencore and BHP, while leveraging ETFs like ION for broader exposure. As the DRC refines its approach, staying attuned to policy updates and technological trends will be critical for navigating this dynamic market.