Conflux/Tether Market Overview

• Price declined from 0.1197 to 0.1032, with bearish consolidation below key resistance.
• Volatility increased but volume failed to confirm, suggesting muted conviction.
• RSI oversold at ~30, hinting potential short-term rebound, though momentum remains weak.
• A bearish engulfing pattern confirmed bearish sentiment on a recent 15-min swing.
• Turnover peaked at 0.1032, indicating a short-term price pivot may be forming.

Conflux/Tether (CFXUSDT) opened at 0.1197 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of 0.1246, dipped to a low of 0.0959, and closed at 0.1032 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-12. Total volume reached 50,627,060, and notional turnover stood at approximately $5,165,285 over the 24-hour window.

The 15-minute chart displayed a clear bearish trend, with price breaking below the 0.1150–0.1180 resistance cluster. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed around 18:15–18:30 ET, confirming downward momentum. The 20- and 50-period SMAs remained above the price, reinforcing bearish bias, while the 200-day SMA on the daily chart acts as a critical long-term support at ~0.1050.

Structure & Formations

Price has been consolidating between 0.1000 and 0.1050 since the morning, with key support levels at 0.1030 and 0.1015. A doji formed at 0.1015 on 08:30 ET, indicating indecision. The bearish engulfing pattern around 18:15–18:30 ET provided strong bearish confirmation, suggesting sellers are gaining control.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period SMAs have crossed below the price, forming a death cross. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period SMAs are converging from below the 200-day SMA, indicating a possible trend reversal is underway.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed below the signal line, with a bearish divergence forming in the latter half of the session. RSI reached 30, indicating oversold conditions, though bearish momentum remains intact. A short-term bounce could occur, but sustained buying is lacking.

Bollinger Bands

Price tested the lower Bollinger band at 0.0995 and rebounded slightly, but volatility remains elevated compared to earlier in the week. The bands have widened since 0.1020, suggesting ongoing uncertainty in the market.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to 3.6M at 0.1032, indicating a short-term pivot. However, turnover failed to confirm this strength, with volumes declining after the key low. Divergence between price and turnover at 0.1020 suggests waning conviction in the current move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the 0.1197–0.1032 swing, key levels include 0.1087 (38.2%) and 0.1054 (61.8%). The 0.1054 level could act as a critical support zone if the bearish trend continues into the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The Bearish Engulfing pattern on CFXUSDT has historically shown mixed effectiveness. While the pattern formed strongly during the session (e.g., 18:15–18:30 ET), backtesting from 2022–2025 revealed only a 40–52% win rate and no significant edge over a USDT benchmark. The 30-day cumulative return was +5.6%, lagging the benchmark’s +11%. This suggests the pattern alone may not provide a reliable trading edge. Investors should consider combining it with overbought RSI, volume surges, or macro signals for better performance. The current context may favor a cautious approach unless clear reversal cues emerge.