Conflux/Tether Market Overview as of 2025-10-12

• Conflux/Tether (CFXUSDT) declined sharply in the early hours before forming a bullish reversal pattern near $0.0972.

• Key support at $0.0972 was tested and held, triggering a recovery rally of over 15% through the remainder of the 24-hour window.

• Momentum shifted from bearish to bullish after 22:00 ET, with volume increasing and RSI moving out of oversold territory.

• Bollinger Bands contracted sharply in the morning before expanding on the rebound, indicating a breakout likely.

• A strong divergence between price and turnover occurred during the early selloff, followed by confirmation as volume surged on the recovery.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-12, Conflux/Tether (CFXUSDT) opened at $0.1037, reaching a high of $0.1131 and a low of $0.0961 before closing at $0.1125. Total 24-hour volume was 38,200,633.0, and notional turnover reached $3,896,615.46. The pair exhibited a sharp bearish reversal early in the day followed by a strong recovery.

Structure & Formations

Price tested a critical support at $0.0972, where a bullish engulfing pattern formed after 19:30 ET. This was followed by a strong rebound that pushed the price above the $0.1050 psychological level. A 15-minute doji formed at the low of $0.0961, signaling indecision before the reversal. The consolidation period from 20:00–22:00 ET provided a low-volatility setup, followed by a breakout above key resistance at $0.1050.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period 15-minute moving averages were in bullish alignment by 22:30 ET, confirming the upward shift in momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA crossed above the 100-period SMA, forming a golden cross, suggesting a medium-term bullish bias. The 200-period SMA acted as a dynamic support level during the morning dip, with the price rebounding above it after 20:30 ET.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive from 22:00 ET, confirming the bullish move, while the RSI moved from oversold territory (<30) to mid-range (~55) by 03:00 ET. A divergence between price and RSI occurred in the early morning, with RSI bottoming before the price did. This provided early confirmation of a potential reversal. The RSI continued to rise in tandem with price, indicating strong momentum in the upward direction.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted between 19:45–21:30 ET, signaling a period of consolidation before the breakout. The price closed above the upper band by 16:00 ET, indicating a strong move. The bands remained wide during the recovery, suggesting elevated volatility and a continuation of the bullish phase is possible.

Volume & Turnover

The most significant volume spike occurred between 15:15–16:00 ET, coinciding with the final push above $0.1125. This was supported by a sharp increase in notional turnover, reinforcing the bullish breakout. Earlier, during the selloff, volume was high but notional turnover was lower, indicating possible divergence between price and participation. The latter phase of the recovery saw rising volume and turnover in line with price action.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels played a key role during the bounce. The 61.8% retracement of the $0.0961–$0.1022 move acted as a key support level at $0.0972, where the price found a floor. From 22:00–16:00 ET, the 15-minute retracement levels at $0.1050 and $0.1103 provided resistance before the price closed near the 78.6% level at $0.1131. Daily retracements confirmed the recovery as price moved above the 50% level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve using the 20-period 15-minute EMA and 50-period 15-minute EMA for entry signals. A long position could be initiated when the 20-period EMA crosses above the 50-period EMA, supported by a bullish engulfing pattern and a RSI above 40. A trailing stop could be placed at the 15-minute Bollinger Band lower boundary. The strategy would aim to capture the upward momentum seen in the latter half of the day. This approach appears to align with the technical setup observed, particularly around 22:00 ET when the bullish crossover and pattern occurred.