Conflux/Tether Market Overview for 2025-10-04

• Price declined from $0.1526 to $0.1442 over the last 24 hours, with oversold RSI and a negative volume trend.
• A bearish breakdown below the $0.15 support line led to a 6.67% decline toward $0.1442.
• Volatility increased with a 2.4% Bollinger Band expansion and a 1.16% increase in average true range.
• Notional turnover hit $49,351,326, driven by high volume in the 23:45–01:15 ET time frame.

Conflux/Tether (CFXUSDT) opened at $0.1487 on 2025-10-03 12:00 ET, peaked at $0.1526, and closed at $0.1442 at 2025-10-04 12:00 ET. Total volume was 31,501,200 tokens, with a notional turnover of $49,351,326.

The 24-hour OHLCV pattern shows a distinct bearish trend, with a sharp price drop after the 16:00–17:00 ET hour. Key support levels formed around $0.1491 and $0.1473, with a breakdown below $0.1491 triggering further bearish momentum. A doji-like pattern at $0.1493–$0.1492 and a large bearish engulfing pattern at $0.1525–$0.1495 highlight significant bearish bias. The price also appears to be forming a bearish continuation pattern, with potential for a target near $0.1425.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart showed strong bearish momentum after the 17:00 ET candle, where the price dropped from $0.1525 to $0.1495. A large bearish candle formed at $0.1525–$0.1495, indicating strong seller pressure. Key resistance levels include $0.1510 and $0.1525, both of which failed to hold. On the lower side, support levels at $0.1491 and $0.1473 were tested, but the price broke through the $0.1491 level with a doji candle, indicating indecision before continuing lower. The breakdown at $0.1491 confirmed a bearish trend, with the next potential support at $0.1462.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both showed bearish divergence, with the price trading well below both. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages have not yet crossed, suggesting no strong trend formation at the daily level. The price remains below all three moving averages, indicating a bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD for the 15-minute chart shows a bearish crossover with the signal line, and the histogram is negative, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI has fallen into oversold territory (below 30), suggesting a possible near-term bounce. However, the RSI remains bearish, with a divergence between price and momentum, which may lead to a continuation of the downward trend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands on the 15-minute chart show an expansion in volatility, with the bands widening by 2.4% over the past 24 hours. The price closed at $0.1442, near the lower band, indicating that it is in oversold territory. The contraction of bands earlier in the day followed by a widening suggests a potential for a price breakout or reversal. The average true range (ATR) also increased by 1.16%, indicating heightened volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover trends were bearish throughout the 24-hour period. The largest volume spike occurred during the 16:00–17:00 ET hour, when the price dropped from $0.1525 to $0.1495 on 4.04 million tokens. Turnover during this period was $606,650. A divergence between price and volume was observed around $0.1493–$0.1491, where price declined slightly but volume increased, confirming the bearish bias. The highest turnover occurred during the 23:45–01:15 ET period, with a total notional value of $49,351,326.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.1487 to $0.1526, the 38.2% retracement level is at $0.1506 and the 61.8% level is at $0.1494. The price closed below the 61.8% level, indicating strong bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level is at $0.1501 and the 61.8% level is at $0.1488, both of which were broken during the 16:00–17:00 ET hour. The breakdown of the 61.8% level suggests that the price may continue toward $0.1462.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering a short position when price breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and a bearish MACD crossover. The stop-loss is placed just above the 38.2% retracement level, while the take-profit is set at the next Fibonacci level or a recent swing low. This strategy appears to align with the recent price action, where a breakdown below $0.1491 was confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and a negative MACD. The strategy would have entered a short at $0.1491 with a stop at $0.1501 and a target at $0.1462.