Conflux/Tether (CFXUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-10-03

• Price surged 0.7% from $0.1469 to $0.1478, with a 24-hour high of $0.1528 and a low of $0.1464.
• Volatility and volume spiked in late-night hours, suggesting increased market participation.
• RSI showed signs of overbought conditions after a sharp rally, hinting at potential consolidation.
• Candles formed bullish engulfing and bearish harami patterns, indicating indecision and momentum shifts.
• Bollinger Bands widened after a contraction, suggesting a breakout scenario with elevated volatility.

At 12:00 ET, Conflux/Tether (CFXUSDT) opened at $0.1469, surged to a high of $0.1528, dropped to a low of $0.1464, and closed at $0.1478. The pair saw a total volume of 33,000,000 CFX, with a turnover of approximately $4.9 million over the past 24 hours.

The price moved in a clear range-bound fashion for much of the session before breaking out in the early hours of October 3. A strong rally followed a bearish rejection at the 0.1516 level, with a bullish engulfing pattern forming around 19:30 ET. That signaled a potential reversal, which was confirmed by the subsequent upward momentum. However, a bearish harami at $0.1528 in late trading suggested exhaustion and a possible pullback.

Key resistance levels were identified at $0.1528 (24-hour high) and $0.1516 (strong psychological level), while strong support emerged around $0.1501–$0.1491. The 15-minute 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA in the early morning, indicating short-term bullish bias. Meanwhile, the 50-period daily MA remained above the 100-period MA, showing medium-term strength.

Bollinger Bands expanded after a period of contraction, suggesting increased volatility and a possible continuation of the current trend. The RSI hit overbought territory during the rally, raising the likelihood of a near-term consolidation phase. MACD showed a positive crossover with a strong histogram, reinforcing the bullish momentum. Price traded outside the upper Bollinger Band for a brief period, confirming the strength of the move.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy outlined involves identifying overbought RSI conditions combined with bearish candlestick patterns, such as the harami, to signal potential short-term reversals. Given the current context, where CFXUSDT reached overbought RSI levels and formed a harami pattern near $0.1528, the hypothesis would have triggered a sell or short signal. The strategy relies on mean reversion after strong momentum. If applied, it would have yielded a successful short trade given the subsequent pullback.