Compound/Tether Market Overview: Volatility and Momentum in a Mixed 24-Hour Session

Summary
• Price opened at $31.89 and closed at $31.90 with intraday range between $31.62 and $32.48.
• Volume surged in the overnight session, confirming key support and resistance levels.
• RSI and MACD suggest mixed momentum, with potential for consolidation or reversal.
• Bollinger Bands show a recent expansion, indicating increased volatility.
• Notable bearish and bullish candle patterns observed in key turning points.

The Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) pair opened at $31.89 on November 5, 2025, and closed at $31.90 by the same time on November 6, with a 24-hour high of $32.48 and low of $31.62. Total trading volume reached 13,290.78 units, and notional turnover hit $419,911.69. The session was marked by volatility and multiple attempts to break above $32.25 and below $31.85.

Structure and formations reveal key resistance levels at $32.25 and $32.35, with strong support forming near $31.85 and $31.62. Notable candlestick patterns include a bearish engulfing pattern around 09:00 ET and a bullish engulfing pattern early in the overnight session, indicating short-term reversal signals. A doji near $32.15 on November 6 highlights indecision and potential for a consolidation phase.

Moving averages (20/50-period) on the 15-minute chart indicate a bearish crossover, with the 50-period moving below the 20-period, suggesting short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 200-period moving average remains above the 100-period line, indicating the broader bullish trend is intact. The 50-period line appears to act as a critical dynamic level around $31.95.

The RSI moved into overbought territory near $32.35, peaking at 68, but pulled back to neutral territory by the end of the session, suggesting temporary momentum waning. MACD showed a bearish crossover around 04:00 ET but faded by the close, indicating mixed momentum. Bollinger Bands were in an expansionary phase, signaling heightened volatility, with the closing price sitting just below the midline, suggesting continued uncertainty.

Volume spiked significantly in the early hours, especially between 03:30 and 05:00 ET, as the price tested resistance above $32.25. The highest notional turnover occurred during this period, reinforcing the significance of the $32.25 level. Divergence between price and volume was observed near $31.85, suggesting potential bearish pressure, though price held above key support.

Fibonacci retracements from the recent swing high at $32.48 and low at $31.62 indicate critical levels to watch: 38.2% at $32.09 and 61.8% at $31.81. The 61.8% level appears to have acted as a strong support zone, with price bouncing off it in the afternoon.

Backtest Hypothesis
To validate potential short-term trading signals observed in this session, a systematic back-test using candlestick patterns such as the Bearish Engulfing pattern could be applied. The pattern emerged multiple times in this 24-hour window, notably around 09:00 ET and earlier in the overnight session. For a structured test, execution could be based on the next-day open, with an exit strategy targeting the open five trading days later. Stop-loss and take-profit levels could be set based on the 20-period moving average and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, respectively. A successful back-test would require the pattern to consistently produce signals aligned with the observed price action.