Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) Market Overview

• Price declined from $36.05 to $35.31 before recovering to $35.93 by 12:00 ET, reflecting bearish momentum.
• Volume spiked to 4,064.028 during a sharp pullback, suggesting increased selling pressure.
• A Bearish Engulfing pattern formed near $35.60, followed by a test of prior support at $35.35.
• RSI showed oversold conditions during the $35.31 trough, hinting at potential short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands contracted near $35.50 before the rebound, indicating a possible breakout ahead.

The Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) pair opened at $35.72 on 2025-11-01 12:00 ET and closed at $35.93 on 2025-11-02 12:00 ET, with a high of $36.20 and a low of $34.84. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 37,983.396, while notional turnover reached $1,331,544.39 in USDT. Price action showed a bearish impulse followed by a rebound off key support levels, suggesting a potential consolidation phase ahead.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a Bearish Engulfing pattern near $35.60, confirming a short-term reversal. A swing low at $35.31 acted as a strong support, holding during a key test. A subsequent bullish countertrend move formed a hammer-like structure near $35.35, hinting at potential bullish follow-through. Resistance levels emerged at $35.85 and $36.05, with the 20-period EMA at $35.83 and 50-period EMA at $35.75 acting as dynamic support.

Moving Averages

The 20-period EMA (15-min chart) currently sits at $35.83, closely tracking price, while the 50-period EMA at $35.75 suggests a slightly bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period EMA at $35.68 is below the 200-period EMA at $35.95, indicating a bearish intermediate trend. The 100-period EMA at $35.80 is also slightly bearish, confirming a mixed but bearish-leaning setup.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the bearish leg, confirming a bearish divergence. RSI bottomed at 30 during the $35.31 trough and has since recovered to 52, indicating a potential short-term bounce. A close above $36.05 could see RSI test overbought territory, while a break below $35.50 may push RSI into oversold levels again. Momentum appears to be in flux, with a possible shift in trend on the horizon.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands tightened near $35.50, a classic volatility contraction pattern, before the price rebounded. The recent move has pushed price toward the upper band at $36.05, with the middle band at $35.83. A close above $36.15 could trigger a break of the upper band, signaling a bullish breakout, while a retest of the lower band at $35.35 remains a key watchpoint.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 4,064.028 during the sharp dip toward $35.31, suggesting aggressive selling pressure. However, buying interest picked up afterward, with a volume of 1,275.004 on the candle forming a bullish reversal. A divergence between price and volume near $34.84 suggests caution. If notional turnover fails to confirm a new leg higher, it could signal fading bullish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key 24-hour swing from $34.84 to $36.20, the 38.2% retracement level at $35.56 and 61.8% at $35.91 align with recent price action. The current close at $35.93 is near the 61.8% level, suggesting a potential consolidation or reversal point. A break above $35.95 may test the 78.6% at $36.13, while a retest below $35.56 could see further bearish pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis

To operationalise a rule-based "hold until next support" strategy using the Bearish Engulfing pattern, a practical approach would involve setting a dynamic stop-loss at the prior swing low and exiting when price breaks above a 20-period EMA. For example, an entry on a confirmed Bearish Engulfing pattern at $35.60 would place a stop-loss at $35.35 and a profit target at $35.85 (a 7.5% move). Alternatively, a trailing stop based on ATR could be used to capture more of the trend. A maximum holding period of 5 trading days could be included to manage drawdown risk. This aligns with the recent 15-minute and daily structure, where the 20/50 EMA and Fibonacci levels provide clear targets and stops.