CompoSecure (CMPO) Surges 21% Intraday: Earnings, Guidance, and Options Volatility Ignite Frenzy

Summary
• CompoSecure (CMPO) rockets 21.32% to $17.47, hitting its 52-week high of $17.54
• Q2 2025 earnings beat estimates, with pro forma EBITDA up 26% to $46.3M
• Options volatility spikes: 20 contracts trade with implied volatility ratios ranging from 29.22% to 79.16%
• Intraday range of $15.00 to $17.54 highlights sharp momentum shift

CompoSecure’s stock has erupted in post-earnings volatility, driven by a combination of strong domestic sales growth, margin expansion, and aggressive full-year guidance. The 21.32% intraday surge reflects a mix of earnings optimism and speculative options activity, with key technical levels and options contracts now in focus for near-term direction.

Earnings Beat and Guidance Fuel 21% Surge
CompoSecure’s 21.32% intraday jump stems from a Q2 2025 earnings report that exceeded expectations across multiple metrics. Non-GAAP net sales rose 10% to $119.6M, while pro forma EBITDA surged 26% to $46.3M. The company raised full-year guidance to $455M in sales and $158M in EBITDA, signaling confidence in its CompoSecure Operating System’s efficiency gains. Domestic sales grew 22% to $104.3M, offsetting a 35% international decline, and non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 57.5% from 51.6% in the prior year. These results, combined with high-profile partnerships (Chase, Coinbase, MGM) and a $96.5M cash balance, triggered a sharp re-rating.

Financial Transaction Services Sector Mixed as Visa (V) Gains 1.23%
The Financial Transaction Services sector showed divergent momentum, with sector leader Visa (V) rising 1.23% on improved cross-border payment adoption. However, CompoSecure’s 21.32% surge far outpaced sector averages, driven by its earnings-driven re-rating rather than broader industry trends. While companies like Marqeta and Global Payments reported stable performance, CompoSecure’s focus on metal card programs and operational efficiency created a unique catalyst.

Options Volatility and ETF Strategy for CMPO’s Bullish Momentum
• 200-day MA: 13.88 (below) • RSI: 41.59 (oversold) • MACD: 0.0098 (bullish) • Bollinger Bands: 13.66–15.11 (price at upper band)

CompoSecure’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish breakout. The stock has pierced the 52-week high of $17.54 and is trading above the 200-day MA, with RSI in oversold territory indicating potential follow-through. The most liquid options contracts include CMPO20250815C17.5 and CMPO20250919C17.5, both with high leverage ratios (43.55% and 24.89%) and implied volatility in the 41.83%–29.22% range. Key support/resistance levels at $14.27–14.30 and $15.84–16.00 will test the sustainability of the move.

CMPO20250815C17.5 (Call, $17.5 strike, 8/15 expiry):
• IV: 41.83% (moderate) • Delta: 0.489 (moderate sensitivity) • Theta: -0.0698 (high time decay) • Gamma: 0.3696 (high sensitivity to price moves) • Turnover: $7,555
• This contract offers aggressive leverage (43.55%) and high gamma, ideal for a short-term bullish bet. A 5% upside to $18.34 would yield a payoff of $0.84 per share.

CMPO20250919C17.5 (Call, $17.5 strike, 9/19 expiry):
• IV: 29.22% (low) • Delta: 0.522 (moderate sensitivity) • Theta: -0.0163 (moderate time decay) • Gamma: 0.228 (moderate sensitivity) • Turnover: $4,525
• This contract balances leverage (24.89%) with lower IV, making it suitable for a mid-term hold. A 5% upside would generate a $0.84 payoff.

Aggressive bulls may consider CMPO20250815C17.5 into a break above $17.50, while conservative traders could use CMPO20250919C17.5 for a longer-term position.

Backtest CompoSecure Stock Performance
The backtest of CMPO's performance after a 21% intraday increase shows mixed results. While the stock experienced a significant surge, the short-term win rates are below average, indicating potential challenges in achieving continued gains.

Bullish Momentum Intact: Watch $17.50 Break and Sector Leader Visa (V)
CompoSecure’s 21.32% surge is underpinned by strong earnings, margin expansion, and full-year guidance, creating a high-conviction bullish case. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week high and oversold RSI suggest further upside, but a breakdown below $15.84 could trigger a retest of the 200-day MA at $13.88. Investors should monitor the $17.50 level as a critical inflection point, with options like CMPO20250815C17.5 offering high leverage for a short-term rally. Meanwhile, sector leader Visa (V) gaining 1.23% signals broader industry strength, reinforcing the case for holding long positions in CompoSecure’s momentum-driven trade.