Commodity Rotation, Tariff Risks, and a Sugar Spark: Teucrium’s Jake Hanley Breaks Down the Ag Trade Setups

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For commodity traders looking to stay ahead of the next rotation, Jake Hanley of Teucrium offers a clear-eyed take on where the ag complex sits—and where the setups may be forming. In a conversation with AInvest’s Adam Shapiro, Hanley, Managing Director and Senior Portfolio Strategist at Teucrium, unpacks fundamentals across corn, wheat, soybeans, and sugar while addressing real catalysts that could jolt prices from their recent drift. From tariff risk and seasonal lows to speculative chatter around Coca-Cola’s return to cane sugar, the message is simple: don’t ignore ag right now.

Hanley starts by recapping Teucrium’s core single-commodity ETFs—CORN, WEAT, SOYB, and CANE—offering futures-based exposure through standard brokerage accounts. With volatility down and positioning light across much of the sector, Hanley hints this might be the moment contrarian traders start leaning in. “Globally, commodity prices have been coming off their highs,” he notes, “but we may be nearing the lower end of the range heading into the fall.”

The most eyebrow-raising catalyst discussed? Coca-Cola’s rumored shift back to cane sugar in U.S. products. While Hanley is quick to point out the move wouldn’t reshape the global sugar market—given Brazil (35% of global production) and India (25%) dominate supply—he acknowledges it could drive short-term sentiment and trigger a positioning shift. “That news leads investors to say, well, wait a second… maybe there’s an opportunity,” he says. For those not trading futures outright, the CANE ETF provides ICE No. 11 exposure via an accessible wrapper.

But the bigger undercurrent is structural: the U.S. is a net importer of sugar, with Mexico and Brazil as the primary sources. “Tariffs absolutely will have an impact,” Hanley warns, particularly if U.S. trade tensions escalate. While domestic prices could spike, global benchmarks may remain detached—offering traders potential basis dislocations and spread opportunities. He stresses that while the ICE No. 11 contract won’t be directly influenced by U.S. tariffs, domestic pricing dynamics certainly will.

Beyond sugar, Hanley delves into broad commodity price compression across soybeans, corn, and wheat—despite consistently rising global demand. The culprit? Accelerating acreage expansion, especially in Brazil. “They’ve literally been burning the rainforest to add farmland,” Hanley says, with most of that output flowing to China as animal feed. In essence: demand's growing, but supply has caught up—for now.

That “for now” carries weight. Hanley reminds traders that ag markets are inherently weather-sensitive, and when production gets disrupted, moves are fast and sharp. “You do see price spikes when demand outpaces supply. It happened in 2011, again in 2020–2021, and it could happen again,” he says. For those watching seasonality, Hanley notes that many ag products tend to bottom out in Q4, especially around the U.S. harvest cycle. “We could see ETFs around the bottom part of their range and potentially start trending higher,” he adds—cue the long setup watchlist.

From a trading strategy lens, Hanley outlines two major user profiles: long-term allocators seeking non-correlated assets, and tactical traders chasing trend confirmation. The latter group, he says, is increasingly leaning into Teucrium’s newly launched 2x leveraged CORN and WEAT products. “They’re not for the novice, but they give more tactical firepower when these markets move.”

For ag traders waiting for volatility to return, Hanley’s message is clear: stay alert. Between tariff policy, seasonal inflection points, and weather-driven disruptions, the second half of the year could present asymmetric reward opportunities. “Production is keeping pace with demand right now,” Hanley says, “but that’s always temporary in ag.”

In short: fundamentals are stable, sentiment is quiet, and setups are forming. That’s usually when opportunity knocks.

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