Commerzbank revises oil price forecast for Brent for coming year downwards to $65 per barrel

Commerzbank revises oil price forecast for Brent for coming year downwards to $65 per barrel

Commerzbank, a leading financial institution, has revised its oil price forecast for Brent crude oil for the upcoming year, lowering it to $65 per barrel. This downward revision comes amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions and potential supply disruptions, particularly from Russia.

The decision to revise the forecast is rooted in the recent market dynamics and geopolitical events. The Brent crude oil price initially gained ground at the start of September, breaking through the $68 per barrel mark. However, the closure of US markets on Monday due to Labor Day reduced the significance of the previous day's price movements [1].

Market participants remain focused on potential supply disruptions from Russia. Carsten Fritsch, a commodity analyst at Commerzbank, highlighted these concerns, noting that the market is closely watching the data on Russia's seaborne oil exports expected to be published by Bloomberg today. This data will provide insights into the impact of recent events on oil shipments [1].

India's stance on Russian oil purchases has also been a significant factor. Despite growing US pressure, India has shown resistance to US sanctions. The Indian energy minister defended the purchases, stating that they have stabilized the market and prevented a significant price increase. Indian refineries continue to find financial incentives in buying Russian Urals oil at a discount compared to Brent [1].

Moreover, the global economic outlook and monetary policy decisions are influencing oil prices. The recent decline in the US Dollar Index (DXY) has contributed to the rise in gold and silver prices, which in turn impacts oil prices. The Gold price (XAU/USD) has been trading in negative territory near $3,440 during the Asian trading hours [2].

The downward revision in the oil price forecast by Commerzbank reflects the complex interplay of geopolitical factors, market dynamics, and economic conditions. As the market continues to evolve, investors and financial professionals should closely monitor these developments to make informed decisions.

References:
[1] https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-2-1088329-20250902
[2] https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-2-1088329-20250902