Commerce Secretary: No Recession, Bitcoin Drops 7%

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has dismissed concerns about an impending recession in the United States, asserting that the country's economy remains robust despite growing market uncertainties and a downturn in cryptocurrency values. Lutnick's remarks came during a Sunday edition of Meet the Press, where he confidently stated, “There’s going to be no recession in America.” This stance contrasts with the cautious views expressed by some Wall Street institutions and economists who have warned about potential economic contraction.

Lutnick's optimism is rooted in the administration's tariff strategy, which he believes will drive significant new investment into the American economy. He argued that the tariffs will force other countries to lower their trade barriers, resulting in $1.3 trillion in new investment. This, he claims, will unleash extraordinary economic growth over the next two years. Lutnick's predictions stand in contrast to President Trump's more guarded statements, who, when asked about the possibility of a recession, stated, “I hate to predict things like that.” Trump acknowledged that there is a period of transition ahead due to the significant changes being implemented.

While acknowledging that tariffs may increase the cost of foreign goods, Lutnick framed this as part of a broader effort to balance the budget and lower borrowing costs. He predicted that balancing the budget would drive interest rates down, making mortgages more affordable. Lutnick also promised that grocery prices would start decreasing in early April, emphasizing that American products will become cheaper even as foreign goods may cost more. This strategy is part of the administration's plan to implement reciprocal tariffs on other nations, with the exemptions for Canada and Mexico set to expire on April 2.

Cryptocurrency traders, however, appear less optimistic about the economic outlook. Bitcoin fell 7% on Sunday, dropping to $80,000 and approaching its 2025 low of $78,000. Other major cryptocurrencies, including Ether, Solana, and XRP, followed Bitcoin’s downward trend, while meme coins like Dogecoin and Cardano fell by nearly 12%. This market sentiment is reflected in prediction markets, where the odds of a U.S. recession in 2025 have jumped to 41%, representing a 16% increase in recent weeks.

Economic indicators present a mixed picture. The latest U.S. jobs report showed 151,000 jobs added