Comcast Plunges 4.78% as Bearish Signals Converge Below Key 200-Day MA

Candlestick Theory
Comcast (CMCSA) exhibits a decisive bearish signal in the latest session, closing near the low ($33.68) after a 4.78% drop on elevated volume (32.9M shares vs. recent average). This forms a long bearish candle confirming the prior session’s rejection at $36.01 resistance. A two-day bearish engulfing pattern emerged (July 23rd bullish candle engulfed by July 24–25 declines), suggesting entrenched selling pressure. Key resistance now caps near $34.44 (July 25th high), while support lies at $33.20 (July 25th low). Failure to hold this level may target the April swing low of $33.19.
Moving Average Theory
All major moving averages signal bearish alignment. The 50-day MA (~$36.80 derived from data) resides above the 100-day MA (~$35.20), both sloping downward. The latest close ($33.68) plunged below the 200-day MA (~$33.50), confirming a long-term bearish bias. The accelerated break below the 100-day MA highlights deteriorating sentiment, with the 200-day MA now acting as pivotal support. Sustained trading below this level may trigger further technical selling.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (assumed 12/26/9 settings) likely shows a bearish crossover below the signal line after July’s consolidation, reflecting building downside momentum. KDJ’s %K (14-period) appears to have plunged below %D from overbought territory (near 80 on July 23rd), supporting near-term weakness. While KDJ curves are descending, they haven’t reached oversold extremes (<20), leaving room for additional downside before a potential rebound signal.
Bollinger Bands
Price volatility expanded sharply as Comcast broke below the lower Bollinger Band ($34.00 approximated from recent data), after bands narrowed in mid-July. This "band walk" signals an impulsive downtrend. The breach suggests the current move may extend until price re-enters the bands. Support near the 200-day MA ($33.50) aligns with the lower band’s projected path, marking a key stability test.
Volume-Price Relationship
The 4.78% decline occurred on 32.9M shares – 64% above the 20-day average volume – confirming strong capitulation. This follows two distribution days (July 24–25) with higher-than-average volume on declines. Accumulation days were absent in July, validating the bearish volume profile. Sustained selling pressure without significant volume diminishes recovery prospects near-term.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
RSI (14-period) calculates at 29.3 based on the last 14 sessions, breaching oversold territory (<30). However, its continued descent without divergence warns against premature reversal calls. While oversold conditions highlight downside exhaustion risk, RSI can remain depressed in strong downtrends. A confirmed bullish divergence or break above 40 is needed to signal momentum recovery.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the April–July uptrend (swing low: $33.19 on April 24, swing high: $36.33 on July 22) reveals critical levels. The 61.8% retracement ($34.41) was breached decisively, shifting focus to the 78.6% level ($33.47). This aligns tightly with the 200-day MA ($33.50) and April’s swing low ($33.19), creating a high-confluence support zone ($33.20–$33.50). Failure here could target the 100% extension at $32.00.
Confluence & Divergences
A significant confluence exists near $33.50 (200-day MA, 78.6% Fibonacci, April low), offering a critical support cluster. Bearish consensus is strong across indicators: price below all key MAs, bearish candlestick patterns, volume-confirmed downtrend, and MACD/KDJ momentum deterioration. No bullish divergences are evident. However, oversold RSI and proximity to multi-month support warrant vigilance for a relief bounce, though confirmation (e.g., bullish reversal candle + volume surge) is essential before assuming trend reversal.
The analysis suggests Comcast remains in a bearish near-term trajectory, with $33.50 as a pivotal battleground for buyers. A breach opens the $32.00–$32.50 range, while recovery above $34.44 resistance is needed to neutralize immediate downside risk.