Colombia’s Energy Security and the Strategic Case for Investing in Regional Gas Infrastructure

Colombia stands at a pivotal crossroads in its energy strategy, balancing the urgent need for energy security with the geopolitical and economic risks inherent in cross-border partnerships. As the country grapples with a projected natural gas deficit in 2025, its investments in gas infrastructure—particularly along the Pacific Coast—signal a strategic pivot toward diversification and regional integration. Yet, these efforts must be weighed against a backdrop of political instability, regulatory uncertainty, and the lingering shadows of armed conflict.

The Infrastructure Push: A Foundation for Energy Security

Colombia’s state-owned energy giant, Ecopetrol, is spearheading a multi-year initiative to expand regasification and storage capacity, with projects like the Andes Energy Terminal (AET) in Buenaventura and a 60 million cubic feet per day (mcfd) regasification plant in Buga set to operationalize by mid-2026 [1]. These facilities are part of a broader strategy to address supply gaps ahead of the commissioning of offshore gas projects. Complementing these efforts, the Cartagena LNG expansion—led by Promigas, Vopak, and Port Society El Cayao S.A.—aims to boost regasification capacity to 530 million cubic feet per day by late 2026, a critical step in securing domestic supply and enabling cross-border trade [2].

The Buenaventura–Yumbo pipeline, currently in the public tender phase, further underscores Colombia’s commitment to infrastructure resilience. With an estimated $650–$1 billion investment, this 120km pipeline will transport 400 million cubic feet of gas daily, integrating LNG storage and regasification capabilities into the national grid [2]. Such projects are not merely about meeting current demand; they are about positioning Colombia as a regional energy hub capable of exporting surplus capacity to neighbors like Ecuador and Peru.

Geopolitical Risks: A Fragile Operating Environment

Despite these advancements, Colombia’s energy ambitions face significant headwinds. The country’s political landscape remains volatile, with the collapse of peace negotiations with the National Liberation Army (ELN) in 2024 exacerbating rural insecurity. Armed groups now control swaths of territory, particularly in the Pacific coast and Amazon regions, complicating infrastructure development and access to remote energy assets [3]. According to the Colombia Crisis Response Plan 2025, over 9.8 million people have been displaced by conflict, and targeted violence against energy sector workers and social leaders remains a persistent threat [3].

Cross-border partnerships, while promising, are further strained by regional instability. Ecuador, a key energy partner, is modernizing its Esmeraldas Refinery and exploring tenders for the Amistad gas field, yet political and fiscal challenges continue to deter large-scale investment [4]. Meanwhile, broader Latin American dynamics—such as transnational organized crime and shifting regulatory frameworks—add layers of uncertainty to collaborative ventures.

Economic Rewards: The Case for Resilience

Despite these risks, Colombia’s energy infrastructure investments present compelling opportunities. The EU-CELAC Summit in 2025, for instance, highlights growing European interest in Latin American energy partnerships, with the EU and the Latin American Energy Organization (OLADE) committing to tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030 [5]. Colombia’s renewable energy transition plan—targeting 900 MW of self-generation and 50,000 tons of low-carbon hydrogen by 2025—aligns with these global goals, potentially attracting green investment and cross-border technology transfers [2].

Moreover, regional studies suggest that cross-border electricity interconnections and grid-scale storage could enable Colombia to achieve 96.8% renewable energy integration while reducing CO₂ emissions by 73% [6]. While specific ROI projections for gas infrastructure remain elusive, the economic benefits of enhanced energy security—such as reduced import dependency and stabilized power prices—are tangible. For example, the Sebastopol Refinery, set to process 150,000 barrels of crude daily, is expected to complement Cartagena’s operations and reduce reliance on foreign refining capacity [2].

Strategic Balancing Act: Mitigating Risks Through Diversification

The key to Colombia’s success lies in diversifying its energy partnerships and leveraging multilateral frameworks. The EU’s Global Gateway Investment Agenda, which includes 130 projects supporting Latin America’s green transition, offers a blueprint for risk mitigation through shared infrastructure costs and technical expertise [5]. Similarly, public-private partnerships (PPPs) in Mexico’s energy sector—emphasized at the Energy Talks 2025 conference—demonstrate how private capital can be mobilized to offset public investment gaps [7].

For investors, the calculus involves accepting short-term geopolitical risks in exchange for long-term gains in a market poised for structural transformation. Colombia’s tax reforms, green bond initiatives, and participation in international climate agreements (e.g., COP28’s Global Pledge) signal a regulatory environment increasingly aligned with global sustainability trends [8]. While returns on gas infrastructure may lag behind traditional fossil fuel projects, the strategic value of securing energy independence and fostering regional cooperation cannot be overstated.

Conclusion: A Calculated Bet on the Future

Colombia’s energy infrastructure investments are a high-stakes gamble, but one that reflects the country’s determination to navigate a volatile geopolitical landscape. While political instability and armed conflict pose immediate threats, the long-term rewards—enhanced energy security, regional leadership, and alignment with global decarbonization goals—justify a measured approach. For investors, the challenge lies in balancing these risks with Colombia’s strategic position as a bridge between South America’s energy producers and global markets. As the EU-CELAC partnership and regional renewable initiatives gain momentum, Colombia’s gas infrastructure may yet become the linchpin of a more resilient and interconnected Andean energy network.

Source:
[1] [Colombia upping regasification ante to tackle looming gas shortage], [https://brazilenergyinsight.com/2025/03/05/colombia-upping-regasification-ante-to-tackle-looming-gas-shortage/]
[2] Colombia Oil and Gas, [https://colombiaoilandgas.co/]
[3] Colombia Crisis Response Plan 2025, [https://crisisresponse.iom.int/response/colombia-crisis-response-plan-2025]
[4] 2024 Investment Climate Statements: Ecuador, [https://www.state.gov/reports/2024-investment-climate-statements/ecuador]
[5] EU and Latin American Energy Organisation Strengthen Energy Transition Cooperation, [https://energy.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-and-latin-american-energy-organisation-strengthen-energy-transition-cooperation-2025-05-27_en]
[6] [The role of energy storage and cross-border ...], [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666955221000162]
[7] LatAm Eyes Policy, Partnerships to Power Energy Transition, [https://mexicobusiness.news/energy/news/latam-eyes-policy-partnerships-power-energy-transition]
[8] 2024 Investment Climate Statements: Colombia, [https://www.state.gov/reports/2024-investment-climate-statements/colombia__trashed]