Collegium’s Earnings Call Contradictions: Gross-to-Net Outlook Shifts, BD Priorities Broaden to Rare Disease

Date of Call: Aug 6, 2026

Financials Results

• Revenue: $199.9 million in net product revenues, up 6% year-over-year
• EPS: GAAP loss per share were $0.46 basic and diluted in the quarter compared to earnings of $0.38 basic and $0.34 diluted in the prior year quarter; Non-GAAP adjusted earnings per share was $1.92 in the quarter compared to $1.68 in the prior year quarter

Guidance:

• Jornet PM revenue expected to be $190 to $200 million for the full year 2026.
• Astaris revenue expected to be $65 to $75 million for the full year 2026.
• Total product revenues expected to be $825 to $855 million, an 8% increase year-over-year at the midpoint.
• Adjusted EBITDA expected to be $445 to $470 million, essentially flat compared to 2025.
• Jornet gross-to-net expected to remain stable in the mid-60% range for 2026.

Business Commentary:

ADHD Business Growth:

• Collegium Pharmaceutical reported that Dornay prescriptions grew by 13.1%, generating $46.1 million in net revenue, which is up 41% year-over-year. Journey prescribers also reached an all-time high with over 30,000 healthcare providers writing prescriptions, up 17.6% year-over-year.
• The growth was driven by targeted investments, enhanced commercial efforts, and strong HCP perceptions of Journey as the number one branded ADHD medicine.

Acquisition and Integration:

• Collegium completed the acquisition of Astaris in May, adding $12.9 million in revenues, reflecting about a month and a half of commercial sales.
• This acquisition strengthens the ADHD platform by providing a differentiated stimulant brand with IP protection through 2037 and enables significant cost synergies.

Pain Portfolio Performance:

• The company's pain portfolio generated $140.9 million in revenue, with Delbuca's revenues increasing 10% year-over-year.
• Despite challenges such as pressure in the branded long-acting opioid market and lower-than-expected revenue from the Nuscenta franchise due to pricing for authorized generic products, the portfolio remains a strong cash-generating asset.

Strategic Capital Deployment:

• Collegium used approximately $356 million in cash to fund the acquisition of Astaris, reflecting their strategy to create long-term shareholder value through business development, debt reduction, and capital returns.
• The acquisition is expected to be accretive to adjusted EBITDA, with greater impact anticipated in 2027 and beyond.

Guidance and Financial Outlook:

• Collegium updated its full-year guidance to reflect lower-than-expected revenue for the Nusenta franchise but maintained its revenue expectations for Jornet, with guidance of $190 to $200 million.
• The company expects total product revenues in the range of $825 to $855 million, an 8% increase year-over-year at the midpoint, driven by Jornet APM growth and contributions from Astaris.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• Management expressed confidence in full-year expectations and the outlook for the ADHD portfolio. They noted 'strong results,' 'significant progress in our rapidly growing ADHD business,' and being 'well-positioned heading into the important back-to-school season.' The company is 'encouraged by our momentum' and 'remain confident in our ability to execute.'

Q&A:

• Question from Serge Belander (Needham & Co.): On Nucenta, has the net price from the authorized generic now stabilized, or do you expect any additional erosion on the pricing level? And secondly, can you remind us of expectations for potential generic competition on Belbuca and whether you have an authorized generic strategy?
  Response: Net pricing for Nucenta is expected to have stabilized, as reflected in updated guidance. For Belbuca, potential generic competition from Teva is possible in January 2027, but an authorized generic agreement is in place that would trigger only if an external generic launches; currently, Alvagen is barred until December 2032.

• Question from Dennis Ding (Jefferies): Can you comment how much of the Astaris beat came from a change in channel dynamics or gross margin in accounting? And on Nucenta, is the 75% discount on IR and 50% discount on ER in the ballpark?
  Response: The Astaris guidance update reflects commercial performance, not channel dynamics or initial inventory ordering; pro forma revenue was about $5 million in Q1 with gross-to-net around 74%. For Nucenta, branded net price discounts are about 10-15% for IR and 20-25% for ER authorized generic volumes.

• Question from Brandon Fultz (HC Wainwright): Can you provide feedback from field reps and prescribers about selling both Astaris and Jornet, and any changes in SG&A spend for the rest of the year?
  Response: Physicians are already comfortable positioning the two complementary medicines; reps are getting more face-to-face time with physicians since the acquisition. SG&A in H2 will be mid-to-upper single digits higher than H1, with Q3 slightly higher than Q4 due to back-to-school season activities.

• Question from Alex von Reisman (Piper Sandler): How are you thinking about capital deployment and business strategy post-Astaris acquisition?
  Response: The capital deployment strategy remains disciplined, focusing on acquiring differentiated assets (within ADHD, psychiatry/CNS, or rare disease), paying down debt, and opportunistic share repurchases. For business development, they look for U.S.-focused assets with peak sales in the $300-500 million range and long IP durability.

Contradiction Point 1

Drivers of AZSTARYS Revenue Guidance

Contradiction on whether guidance beat is from commercial performance or channel dynamics.

Dennis Ding (Jefferies) - Dennis Ding (Jefferies)

2026Q2: The Astaris guidance update reflects commercial performance, not channel dynamics or initial inventory ordering. - Vikram Karnani(CEO), Colleen Tupper(CFO)

To what extent did changes in channel dynamics or gross-to-net accounting contribute to the Astaris beat in the ADHD segment? - Dennis Ng (Jefferies)

2026Q2: The guidance increase reflects commercial performance expectations, not channel dynamics or initial inventory ordering. - Vikram Karnani(CEO), Colleen Tupper(CFO)

Contradiction Point 2

Nucynta (Nucenta) Pricing Stability

Statements about pricing stability appear inconsistent between quarters.

Serge Belander (Needham & Co.) - Serge Belander (Needham & Co.)

2026Q2: Regarding Nucenta, net pricing is expected to have stabilized, which is reflected in the updated full-year guidance. - Colleen Tupper(CFO)

Has the net price for Nucenta's authorized generic stabilized, or do you expect further erosion, and can you update us on potential generic competition for Belbuca and your strategy for an authorized generic there? - Anthea (Jefferies, on for Dennis Ding)

2026Q1: For Nucynta, the 2026 revenue guidance ($805M-$825M) already contemplates the generic dynamics. Performance to date aligns with expectations, and no significant changes have been observed. - Vikram Karnani(CEO), Colleen Tupper(CFO)

Contradiction Point 3

Belbuca Generic Competition Timeline

The timeline for potential generic competition for Belbuca is presented differently.

Serge Belander (Needham & Co.) - Serge Belander (Needham & Co.)

2026Q2: For Belbuca, Teva has the ability to launch a generic in January 2027 via a settlement agreement... An authorized generic agreement is in place, typically triggered upon an external generic launch. - Colleen Tupper(CFO)

Has the net price for Nucenta's authorized generic stabilized or is further erosion expected, and what are the expectations for generic competition on Belbuca along with any authorized generic strategy for that product? - Anthea (Jefferies, on for Dennis Ding)

2026Q1: The 2026 revenue guidance ($805M-$825M) already contemplates the generic dynamics [for the pain portfolio, including Belbuca]. - Vikram Karnani(CEO), Colleen Tupper(CFO)

Contradiction Point 4

Gross-to-Net Expectations for Jornay

Contradiction on stability versus expected improvement of gross-to-net rates.

Dennis Ding (Jefferies) - Dennis Ding (Jefferies)

2026Q2: The beat to consensus was due to low initial expectations... gross-to-net of 74%, expected to improve but not as dramatically as Jornet. - Vikram Karnani(CEO), Colleen Tupper(CFO)

What portion of the ADHD Astaris sales beat was due to channel dynamics or gross-to-net accounting changes? - Jeevan Larson (Truist Securities, Inc.)

2025Q4: The 2026 Jornay revenue guidance... is driven by demand growth with an expectation of stable gross-to-net rates similar to 2025. - Vikram Karnani(CEO)

Contradiction Point 5

Capital Deployment and Business Development Focus

Shift from prioritizing ADHD/psychiatry to considering a broader range of assets.

Piper Sandler (Alex von Reisman for David) - Piper Sandler (Alex von Reisman for David)

2026Q2: Business development will look for assets within ADHD or adjacent psychiatry/CNS areas, or opportunistically in rare disease. - Vikram Karnani(CEO)

How is the company approaching capital deployment and strategic priorities following the Astaris acquisition, given the strong position in ADHD? - David Amsellem (Piper Sandler & Co.)

2025Q4: The primary BD focus remains on assets in existing areas of expertise (psychiatry/pediatrics) where they can leverage the Jornay sales force. - Vikram Karnani(CEO)