US College Athlete Body Urges CFTC to Pause College Sports Prediction Markets

The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has asked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to suspend college sports prediction markets until appropriate safeguards are in place. The request, made by NCAA President Charlie Baker in a letter to CFTC Chair Michael Selig, highlights concerns about the integrity of amateur sports and the well-being of student-athletes.

The NCAA argues that these markets pose significant risks to young athletes. These include harassment, underage gambling, and a lack of consumer protections. Baker emphasized that prediction markets allow users as young as 18 to participate, a stark contrast to traditional sports betting, which is typically restricted to those aged 21 or older.

Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket have seen explosive growth in recent months. On January 12, 2026, daily trading volume reached a record $701.7 million, with Kalshi accounting for two-thirds of that figure. Despite this growth, the NCAA and state officials have raised concerns about the lack of oversight and the potential for abuse.

Why Did This Happen?

The NCAA first flagged prediction markets in November 2025 after Kalshi reportedly planned to offer bets on college transfer portal decisions. The NCAA pushed for changes in how Kalshi described its markets and sought greater clarity on its integrity safeguards.

Baker reiterated his concerns in December 2025 after Kalshi filed paperwork to begin offering bets on college athlete transfers. Although Kalshi did not proceed with these markets, the NCAA viewed the initiative as a threat to the integrity of college sports.

The NCAA's request for a temporary suspension is not a call for a permanent ban but rather a push for the CFTC to work with the association to establish a regulatory framework that protects athletes and the public.

How Did Markets Respond?

Despite regulatory scrutiny, prediction markets continue to grow. Kalshi and Polymarket dominate the market, with Kalshi processing over $465 million in trading volume on January 12, 2026.

The NCAA's request has sparked broader debate over the legal classification of prediction markets. While these platforms are currently regulated by the CFTC, they operate under less stringent standards than traditional sportsbooks, which are governed by state gaming commissions.

State officials have also taken action against prediction markets. More than 30 state attorneys general have sent cease-and-desist letters to Kalshi, arguing that its markets should be regulated as gambling services.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

The CFTC now faces a difficult decision. If it agrees with the NCAA, it could set a precedent for how similar markets are regulated in the future. Analysts are watching to see whether the CFTC will initiate a rulemaking process or reject the NCAA's request.

Kalshi and other platforms have defended their operations, stating that they use in-house policies and third-party monitoring systems to detect suspicious activity. However, the NCAA argues that these measures are not sufficient and that a more robust system is needed.

The outcome of this debate will have broader implications for the regulation of prediction markets beyond college sports. If the CFTC establishes clearer guidelines, it could affect how prediction markets operate for political events, entertainment awards, and other domains.