Coldcard Loss Estimate Hits $70M-Bitcoin Support Just Got Tighter

Coldcard loss estimate rose to roughly $70M

Galaxy Research now estimates 1,082.65 BTC were drained from 1,196 addresses in a 40-minute window, with most movement occurring between 01:10 and 01:50 UTC on July 30. That lifts the visible loss to roughly $70 million and turns the incident into more than a niche security scare.

The initial report was much lower, which is why traders are now re-rating the event. The main question is no longer whether this was an isolated breach. It is whether the expanded exposure leads to more transfers and, eventually, more selling pressure.

Why the exposed pool kept growing

Once the flaw was traced to Coldcard firmware 4.0.0 through 4.2.0, the incident started to look less like a one-off breach and more like a firmware-class issue.

Mk3 was the most acute exposure

Coinkite's first warning focused on Mk3 versions 4.0.1 through 4.1.9. That narrower group likely explains why the earliest transaction wave was so concentrated.

Mk4, Q, and Mk5 were less severe but still risky

Coinkite later expanded the advisory to cover affected firmware on Mk4, Mk5, and Coldcard Q. For seeds generated on those devices before the fixed releases, the company said device-generated entropy was reduced to about 72 bits instead of 128 bits. That is less severe than the Mk3 case, but still serious enough to keep the risk in focus.

Patching the device does not erase an already created seed

Coinkite was clear that updating firmware does not change or repair an existing seed. Galaxy Research also warned that future attacks are possible on any Coldcard-generated address.

That is why migration matters. If affected holders move funds to newly generated wallets, the network can see another wave of transfers. The software can be fixed quickly, but the fear window may last longer.

Bitcoin is still holding $60,000, but the setup is tighter

Bitcoin is still holding the $60,000 per bitcoin support level. That remains the key line to watch. Below that, the next downside reference is $58,000, the area the market tested at the end of June.

This is not yet a full market-break story. But if selling broadens, the incident stops being about one wallet brand and starts looking like another push to the downside.

The market already had weaker flows before this scare

Bulls have one useful rebuttal: Bitcoin was already dealing with sustained ETF outflows before this security event showed up. Over three weeks, crypto ETF outflows topped more than $4.21 billion over three weeks, including $1.67 billion in a single week earlier that period. If price action stays near the established $60,000 per bitcoin support level, that supports the view that this was a sentiment hit layered on top of existing pressure, not the start of a new trend on its own.

Bears, though, do not need a dramatic new figure. They only need more linked transfers. The Coldcard event already exposed over 1,000 BTC from nearly 1,200 addresses. If that number rises, the market is more likely to price in faster sell-side pressure into an already soft backdrop.

What matters most in the next few sessions

The most useful question is simple: does Coldcard-driven activity add to existing outflows, or does it fade as a headline-driven shock?

• Watch for more linked transfers from affected Coldcard addresses.
• Watch whether price holds the $60,000 per bitcoin support level.
• Watch whether ETF selling stabilizes or keeps draining liquidity.

If transfers and outflows narrow while support holds, this likely fades. If both widen together, the downside pressure can become sharper.