The New Cold War: How Political Violence is Fueling a Gold Rush in Cybersecurity and Surveillance Tech

The recent surge in political violence—from the Minnesota shootings of lawmakers to the attempted assassination of a former president—has ignited a tectonic shift in public sector spending. Governments are now treating cybersecurity and surveillance infrastructure like Cold War-era missile systems: critical, underfunded, and suddenly existential. The result is a once-in-a-generation opportunity for investors to profit from the scramble to secure democracy itself.

The Catalyst: Minnesota's “Watershed Moment”

The June 2025 shootings of two Minnesota lawmakers, carried out by an anti-abortion extremist, became the defining event of a new era. The shooter's manifesto targeting over 70 politicians exposed systemic vulnerabilities in protecting democratic institutions. In response, Minnesota's legislature allocated $239 million to modernize fusion centers and emergency communications systems—funds that directly flowed to companies like Palantir (PLTR) and Anduril.

But Minnesota isn't an outlier. Across the U.S., 48 states introduced over 500 cybersecurity bills in 2025 alone. From Hawaii's push to diversify its economy through cybersecurity jobs to New York's NIST-aligned procurement standards, the message is clear: governments are prioritizing tech that can detect threats before they escalate.

The Winners: Surveillance Tech's “Big Five”

The companies best positioned to profit are those already embedded in public safety systems. Here's the breakdown:

1. Palantir (PLTR): The data aggregation pioneer is the go-to for fusion centers. Its contracts with states like Minnesota and fusion hubs nationwide are expanding as governments demand real-time threat detection.
   
   Why buy? Its bipartisan appeal—trusted by both red and blue states—ensures recurring revenue.

2. Motorola Solutions (MOT): The leader in encrypted radios and interoperability systems, MOT is critical for coordinating responses to attacks. Its equipment is now standard in police departments and emergency networks.
   Why buy? The market for public safety communications is projected to hit $15B by 2027, with MOT owning ~40% of it.

3. Axon Enterprises (AXON): Body cameras and evidence management systems are table stakes for states like Minnesota, which mandated metadata filtering tools.
   Why buy? Axon's software now processes 90% of U.S. police footage—a monopoly in data security.

4. Allied Universal (ALLU): With states slashing budgets, private security firms are filling gaps. ALLU now guards over 200 government buildings, including state capitols.
   Why buy? Physical security outsourcing is a $12B market, growing at 8% annually.

5. Tyler Technologies (TYL): Its software manages public safety workflows, from emergency alerts to infrastructure protection.
   Why buy? Municipalities are prioritizing “digital continuity” plans to survive cyberattacks.

The Risks: Privacy vs. Safety

The rush to fund surveillance has sparked ethical debates. Facial recognition overreach, fusion center staffing delays, and partisan clashes over data sharing are real hurdles. For example, Minnesota's $239M plan faces criticism for lacking transparency in how AI tools are deployed.

But here's the rub: bipartisan momentum trumps ethics. Democrats and Republicans alike fear being blamed for the next attack. A recent survey by the R Street Institute found that 83% of lawmakers prioritize infrastructure spending over privacy concerns—a trend that won't reverse anytime soon.

The Playbook: How to Invest Now

• Core Positions:
• PLTR and MOT are the backbone of this sector. Their recurring revenue models and entrenched contracts make them “buy and hold” stocks.

• AXON benefits from the “body cam dividend”—every new law enforcement hire requires its hardware.

• Growth Plays:

• ALLU is the “Amazon of physical security,” but with a risk: its valuation depends on outsourcing trends.

• TYL is a stealth play on municipal IT upgrades. Its stock trades at a discount to peers despite 15% annual revenue growth.

• ETF Exposure:

• The iShares U.S. Public Sector Technology ETF (IGV) holds all the above and adds exposure to firms like Raytheon (RTX) and L3Harris (LHX), which supply drone systems and border tech.

The Bottom Line

Political violence has become the new normal. Governments are responding with a spending blitz that rivals Cold War-era defense budgets—but this time, the enemy is data breaches, deepfakes, and lone-wolf attackers. The winners will be the companies that turn fear into software.

Investors should treat this sector as a multiyear growth cycle. The Minnesota shootings were the Pearl Harbor moment—now the U.S. is arming itself for a new kind of war. The question isn't whether to bet on cybersecurity—it's how big a stake you're willing to take.