Coinbase Target Raised 64% by Bernstein on Strong Institutional Crypto Growth

Analysts at Bernstein have revised their price target for Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) by 64%, increasing it from $310 to $510. This revision comes on the heels of Coinbase's stock reaching a six-month high of $369.28 on June 25, marking over 140% gains for the second quarter. The firm's bullish outlook is driven by several key factors, including the growth of stablecoins and Coinbase's dominant position in institutional crypto services.

Bernstein analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, have described Coinbase as "the most misunderstood company" and "the Amazon of crypto financial services." They argue that Coinbase's strengths have been widely underestimated. The company is the only crypto firm in the S&P 500 and operates the largest stablecoin business across exchanges, contributing nearly 15% of its total revenue. Additionally, Coinbase powers custody for eight out of eleven Bitcoin ETF asset managers and recently acquired Deribit, the largest global crypto options exchange.

The analysts expect Coinbase to benefit significantly from the stablecoin bill and maintain its unrivaled moat in institutional crypto. They also highlight Coinbase's Base, an Ethereum layer 2 (L2) that serves as the foundation for a tokenization network for institutional clients, as evidenced by recent tests conducted by JPMorgan. These growth catalysts have informed Bernstein's projection of a 2x increase in earnings per share (EPS) for the next two years, leading to a 64% upside for COIN.

Bernstein's valuation is based on a deep dive into Coinbase's operations and financials. The analysts expect Coinbase's total revenue to grow to $9.5 billion by the end of 2025 and $14.5 billion by 2026. This growth is anticipated to be driven by an increase in trading and non-trading revenue streams, such as staking and stablecoins. On EPS projections, the analysts noted that their adjusted EPS for 2025 has increased to $11.26, with further increases expected in subsequent years. They downplayed any bearish thesis on Coinbase, stating that competition from traditional brokers is still "months away."

At the time of the report, COIN’s pre-market value was $357, suggesting about 43% upside if the $510 target is hit. Measured from April lows, COIN has surged over 140%, outperforming some select crypto equities in the second-quarter recovery. The analysts' bullish stance is supported by Coinbase's strong market position and diverse offerings, which have allowed it to maintain its leadership in the crypto exchange landscape despite market volatility.