Coinbase Surges 9.82% on JPMorgan Upgrade Hits 15th in U.S. Volume

Market Snapshot

Coinbase Global (COIN) surged 9.82% on October 24, 2025, closing at approximately $353 per share. The stock’s trading volume spiked to $4.82 billion, a 154.38% increase from the previous day, ranking it 15th in volume among U.S. equities. This performance followed a significant upgrade from JPMorgan Chase, which raised its price target to $404 (a 15% upside from current levels) and shifted its rating to “Overweight” from “Neutral.” The stock has gained 42% year-to-date, pushing Coinbase’s market capitalization to nearly $90.6 billion.

Key Drivers

JPMorgan’s Strategic Upgrade and Valuation Rationale

JPMorgan’s analysts highlighted Coinbase’s strategic initiatives as a catalyst for its upgraded outlook. The bank emphasized Coinbase’s development of the Base layer-2 blockchain, a platform built on Ethereum to enhance scalability and reduce transaction costs. JPMorgan estimated that a potential Base token could unlock $12 billion to $34 billion in market value for Coinbase, with the company’s retained stake potentially worth $4 billion to $12 billion. The token’s distribution, prioritizing developers, validators, and the Base community, is expected to drive ecosystem growth and monetization. Additionally, the bank valued Coinbase at 50 times its projected 2027 earnings, incorporating $4 billion in potential value from the Base token, and set a December 2026 price target of $404.

USDC Rewards Overhaul and Margin Expansion

Another critical factor cited by JPMorgan was Coinbase’s restructuring of its USDC stablecoin rewards program. The bank noted that reducing interest rewards for general users while prioritizing Coinbase One subscribers could generate an additional $374 million in annual earnings. This shift aligns with Coinbase’s broader strategy to diversify revenue beyond trading fees, focusing on stablecoin operations and subscription services. By segmenting users and offering higher yields to premium subscribers, Coinbase aims to optimize costs and enhance profitability, particularly as stablecoin balances and related revenue have shown consistent growth.

Regulatory and Operational Momentum

The report also underscored regulatory developments as a tailwind for Coinbase. The passage of the GENIUS Act, which established a clear framework for U.S. stablecoin adoption, and a broader market structure bill in the House signaled progress toward federal crypto regulation. These developments reduce uncertainty for market participants and position Coinbase to benefit from increased institutional adoption. Operationally, Coinbase has achieved milestones such as higher stablecoin balances and revenue growth in its subscriptions and services segment, which is projected to contribute $665 million to $745 million in the third quarter.

Competitive Positioning and Long-Term Ecosystem Growth

JPMorgan analysts noted that while decentralized exchanges (DEXs) remain a competitive risk, market share between DEXs and centralized exchanges has stabilized. Coinbase’s integrated model—spanning brokerage, market-making, exchange, and custody services—positions it to maintain profitability even if trading fees decline. The bank emphasized that Coinbase’s focus on tokenized infrastructure and stablecoin yield strategies could drive growth beyond its core exchange business. For instance, the introduction of private transactions on the Base network and a $25 million investment to relaunch a popular crypto podcast reflect the company’s commitment to ecosystem expansion and user engagement.

Earnings Expectations and Market Sentiment

With Coinbase set to report third-quarter earnings on October 30, 2025, the stock’s recent rally reflects optimism about its operational resilience. Analysts expect earnings of $1.06 per share, a 71% year-over-year increase, and revenue of $1.74 billion, up 44.1% from the same period in 2024. The subscription and services segment, including staking and custody, is forecast to contribute significantly to these results. The JPMorgan upgrade, combined with these fundamentals, has reinforced investor confidence in Coinbase’s ability to navigate market cycles and regulatory challenges while capitalizing on emerging opportunities in the crypto ecosystem.