Coinbase Stock Surges 21.91% in Three Days on Heavy Trading Volume

Coinbase Global (COIN) concluded the latest session with a 5.52% gain, closing at $374.97. This marks the third consecutive positive day, contributing to a significant three-day surge of 21.91%, propelled by substantial trading volume.
Candlestick Theory
The recent price action for Coinbase Global reveals strong bullish momentum. The three-day ascent culminated in a large bullish candle on June 26th, following a significant bullish marubozu-like candle on June 18th that broke decisively above previous resistance near $300. Key resistance is now evident around the $382 high printed on June 26th, representing the recent swing high and a psychological level. Support has formed near $355, aligning with the June 25th low and the consolidation area preceding the latest breakout. The rejection wick at $382 signals near-term selling pressure at that level.
Moving Average Theory
Moving averages depict a robust bullish trend structure. The current price ($374.97) trades comfortably above key Simple Moving Averages: the 50-day (calculated approx. ~$270), 100-day (approx. ~$240), and 200-day (approx. ~$230). The consistent trading above these averages confirms a strong intermediate to long-term uptrend. Furthermore, the 50-day MA crossed bullishly above both the 100-day and 200-day MAs during May/early June (a golden cross), reinforcing the positive trend bias. The rising slopes of these averages, particularly the shorter-term 50-day, underscore current upward momentum.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) currently resides in positive territory but exhibits a potential bearish convergence. While the price established new recent highs on June 26th, the MACD histogram shows a slight contraction compared to its peak during the initial late May/early June surge, suggesting momentum may be diverging negatively even as prices rise. The KDJ indicator (common settings 9,3,3) shows the %K and %D lines have been oscillating in overbought territory (>80) during the recent advance. Notably, the J-curve has started to hook downwards from extremely overbought levels (>100), potentially indicating an impending short-term pullback or consolidation, despite the strong price trend.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20-period, 2 standard deviations) show significant expansion following the sharp price increases on June 18th and June 24th, reflecting heightened volatility and strong directional momentum. The price currently rides the upper Bollinger Band, typically signaling a strong uptrend but also suggesting the asset is overextended in the near term relative to its recent volatility. A contraction in the bands may signal reduced volatility and potentially precede a period of consolidation.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume analysis strongly validates the recent bullish price surge. The breakouts on June 18th (+16.32%) and June 24th (+12.10%) occurred on the highest daily volumes observed in several months. The subsequent advance, including the June 26th gain, was supported by consistently above-average volume, particularly notable on the pullback day of June 25th, which found support near $343 on significant turnover. This high-volume participation during advances and relatively lower volume on minor pullbacks confirms strong institutional or significant buyer interest, bolstering confidence in the sustainability of the current uptrend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Based on the 14-day RSI calculation (RSI = [Average Gain / (Average Gain + Average Loss)] × 100), the RSI currently reads approximately 71. This places COIN formally within overbought territory (>70). While this can indicate a strong trend, it historically signals an increased probability of a short-term pullback or consolidation phase as buying pressure potentially exhausts. It is crucial to interpret this as a warning signal rather than a definitive reversal indicator, especially within the context of a powerful trend. Historically, the RSI peaked near 80 during the late May rally, aligning with a subsequent sharp correction.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement to the most significant recent swing low (April 4th low of $160.55) and the June 26th swing high ($382.00) provides key reference levels. The crucial retracement levels are: 23.6% ($318.28), 38.2% ($289.70), 50% ($271.28), and 61.8% ($252.85). The current price sits well above the 23.6% level. Pullbacks towards potential support could target this 23.6% level ($318-$320 area) or deeper towards the significant 38.2% retracement ($290 area), which coincides with the psychologically important $300 level and the early June breakout point/consolidation zone. The $290-$300 zone represents a major confluence support area (previous resistance turned support, psychological level, 38.2% Fib).
Confluence and Divergence Summary
Strong confluence exists around the $290-$300 zone, combining the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, previous significant resistance/support, and a major psychological level. The $380-$382 area also represents confluence as recent highs, a psychological level, and the upper Bollinger Band. A notable divergence exists regarding momentum: while price reached new recent highs, both the MACD histogram shows signs of waning upward momentum (bearish divergence) and the KDJ J-curve is retreating from extreme overbought territory. However, this divergence is counterbalanced by robust volume confirmation on the price advance. The overbought RSI further warrants caution for near-term exhaustion. Overall, the technical structure remains bullish, particularly above the $318-$320 (23.6% Fib) and major $290-$300 support zones, though the overbought conditions and momentum divergence suggest increased potential for near-term consolidation or a limited pullback.