Coinbase Stock Rises 5.49% Amid Technical Rebound Signals

Coinbase Global (COIN) gained 5.49% in the most recent session, marking two consecutive days of gains with a cumulative 6.59% advance. This upward momentum occurs against a backdrop of significant volatility over the past year, with prices ranging from a low of $149.51 (September 2024) to a high of $444.65 (July 2025). The following technical analysis evaluates key indicators to assess potential future price direction.
Candlestick Theory
The recent sessions show a bullish reversal pattern emerging near critical support. The August 22 candle established a swing low at $297.19 with a long lower wick, signaling strong buying interest after a 35% decline from July’s peak. Subsequent candles formed higher lows, culminating in a robust white candle on September 9 that closed near the session high ($318.78 vs. $319.39 high), indicating accumulation. Immediate resistance resides near $325–$330, aligning with the August 26–28 consolidation range. Sustained closes above $330 would signal bullish conviction, while failure to hold $300 could reactivate selling pressure.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages reflect a deteriorating trend structure. Price remains below all three key averages ($335, $342, and $320 respectively), confirming a bearish medium-term bias. However, the convergence of the 200-day MA near current levels ($320) may offer dynamic support. A bullish inflection point would require reclaiming the 50-day MA ($335), while sustained trading below the 200-day MA could accelerate declines. The golden cross (50-day above 200-day) observed in March 2025 has fully unwound, suggesting prolonged consolidation is likely.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows nascent positive momentum, with the histogram turning upward after a September 5 bullish crossover. Nevertheless, both MACD and signal lines linger in negative territory, indicating residual weakness. The KDJ oscillator presents a clearer bullish signal: %K (87) and %D (83) have crossed above 80, entering overbought territory after bouncing from oversold levels in late August. This swift transition from oversold to overbought typically signals strong short-term momentum, though divergences against lagging MACD warrant caution. KDJ’s current positioning suggests upside exhaustion may develop near term.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility contraction is evident as bands narrow to a 5% width (current: $305–$337), the tightest since June 2025. Price recently rebounded from the lower band ($303.60 on September 8), and the September 9 close near the upper band signals short-term strength. Band expansion often follows such contractions, suggesting an imminent volatility surge. A confirmed close above the middle band (20-day SMA at $315) would support a breakout toward $330–$337. Failure to hold the middle band may retest the lower band near $305.
Volume-Price Relationship
Recent gains lack robust volume validation—September 9’s advance occurred on below-average volume (10.3M shares vs. 20-day avg of 11.5M). This divergence raises sustainability concerns despite the two-day rally. Notable accumulation occurred on August 13 (34.9M shares) and August 22 (13.0M shares) near swing lows, establishing $297–$300 as high-conviction support. Conversely, the July 18 peak ($444.65) saw climactic volume (28.0M shares), confirming distribution. For bullish continuation, volume must expand above the 20-day average, particularly above $325.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI at 57 reflects neutral momentum after recovering from oversold conditions (29.5 on August 22). While RSI’s upward slope supports near-term upside, it remains below the key 60 threshold that would affirm bullish momentum. Overbought conditions (RSI >70) last occurred during the July rally and preceded a sharp correction. Current readings suggest room for moderate upside before reaching overbought territory, though failure to breach 60 may foreshadow rejection.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the dominant downtrend from July’s high of $444.65 to August’s low of $297.19 shows the recent rebound stalling near the 23.6% retracement ($332). This level aligns with horizontal resistance from early September. A decisive break above $332 could extend gains toward the 38.2% level ($355). However, rejection here would validate the downtrend structure. Critically, the $297 low must hold to avoid opening the 78.6% retracement at $274, which coincides with the June 2025 swing low.
Confluence and Divergences
Confluence exists at $325–$330, where Bollinger upper band resistance, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement, and the 200-day MA converge. Rejection here would reactivate bearish momentum. Key divergences include weak volume during the two-day rally and KDJ’s overbought signal against MACD’s negative territory. These mixed signals suggest skepticism toward sustainability. A decisive close above $330 with volume expansion would negate bearish divergences, targeting $355. Conversely, failure below $300 invalidates the reversal thesis, exposing June lows near $295.