Coinbase Stock Jumps 5.7% Amid Bullish Technical Signals And 354 Close

Coinbase Global (COIN) gained 5.70% in the most recent session, closing at 354.45 after volatile price action near key technical levels. The following technical analysis integrates multiple frameworks based on historical price data.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns reveal significant volatility, with the July 2 session forming a bullish engulfing candle (open: 338.68, close: 354.45) following a 4.33% decline on July 1. This signals potential bullish reversal confirmation if sustained. Key resistance is established at the June 26 high of 382, while support resides near the July 1 low of 334. A bearish shooting star pattern on June 27 (high: 372.5, close: 353.43) preceded the recent pullback, highlighting this zone as a critical technical barrier.
Moving Average Theory
The current price (354.45) trades decisively above all major moving averages: the 50-day MA (∼290), 100-day MA (∼250), and 200-day MA (∼220), confirming a sustained bullish trend. Notably, the 50-day MA provided dynamic support during the mid-June pullback near 295. The ascending alignment of shorter-term MAs above longer-term ones (50 > 100 > 200) exhibits a bullish "stacked" configuration, though stretched extensions beyond the 50-day MA may warrant caution for short-term consolidation.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows a bullish crossover emerging in early July, with momentum shifting positive after a bearish phase in late June. Concurrently, the KDJ oscillator (using 9-day periods) exited oversold territory (<20) on July 1 and now approaches neutral (K: 55, D: 48). This confluence suggests waning downward momentum. However, neither indicator shows extreme signals, implying room for trend development before overbought conditions emerge.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20-day, 2σ) contracted sharply during the late-June correction (width narrowing 18%), indicating reduced volatility. Price rebounded from the lower band near 334 on July 1 and now tests the mid-band (∼340). A decisive close above 340 could signal a bullish volatility expansion. The upper band at ∼375 aligns with the 382 all-time high, creating a technical ceiling. The bands' stabilization after expansion underscores a potential consolidation phase.
Volume-Price Relationship
The recovery on July 2 occurred on marginally lower volume (12.4M shares) versus the preceding down day (13.1M), introducing mild divergence concerns. However, the June 24-27 rally to 382 saw exceptionally high volumes (>27M), validating that resistance. Recent volume spikes during sell-offs (e.g., June 27 volume: 29M shares) suggest distribution near highs, while reduced volume during rebounds may indicate cautious accumulation. Sustained advances require volume confirmation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (current: 58) rebounded from near-oversold levels (30.6 on July 1) but remains below overbought territory. This mid-zone reading reflects balanced momentum with upside capacity. Bearish divergence emerged in late June as price made higher highs (382) while RSI peaked lower (72.4 vs. prior 82.3), preceding the correction. Current RSI trajectory supports continuation potential, but failure to breach 60 could signal exhaustion.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the June swing low (295.29) and high (382): the 38.2% retracement (∼340) held as support on July 1. The current close above the 23.6% level (353.5) signals bullish reversal validation. Near-term targets include the 61.8% retracement at 362.5, coinciding with June’s lower high. Over the broader uptrend (147.35 low in September 2024 to 382 high), the 23.6% retracement (235) aligned with the 200-day MA and provided pivotal support during May-June corrections.
Confluence and Divergence Notes
Strong confluence exists at 340–350 (38.2% Fibonacci, Bollinger mid-band, and prior swing lows), now acting as support. Bullish confirmation requires a close above 362.5 (61.8% Fibonacci) to target 382. Key divergence emerged in late June: bearish RSI divergence and falling volume on new highs signaled exhaustion. Current momentum indicators show alignment in recovery potential, but volume divergence persists. Traders should monitor 340 support and 362 resistance for directional resolution.