Coinbase Stock Drops 5.77% to $353.41 as Bullish Momentum Fades Amid Key $348 Support Test

Candlestick Theory
Coinbase Global closed at $353.41 after a 5.77% decline, forming a bearish candle with notable upper and lower shadows. The session opened near the prior close of $375.07, tested resistance at $372.49 (falling short of the previous high of $382), and established support at $346.66. This pattern follows a three-day bullish sequence culminating in a multi-month high, suggesting potential exhaustion. The extended lower shadow near $346 indicates buyer interest at this level. Key support is now anchored at $346–$348, while resistance stands firmly at $372–$382. A breach below $346 may expose the 50-day moving average, whereas a close above $372 could revive bullish momentum.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages remain positively aligned (50 > 100 > 200), confirming Coinbase's primary uptrend. The price trading consistently above all three averages reinforces bullish bias, though the recent pullback tests immediate supports. The 50-day MA (approximately ~$300) now serves as dynamic support; sustained trading above it would signal trend resilience. A decisive break below the 50-day MA would warrant caution, potentially indicating near-term consolidation.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows narrowing bullish momentum, suggesting a loss of upward thrust amid the latest decline. Though the MACD line remains above its signal line, weakening trajectory hints at a possible bearish crossover. Concurrently, the KDJ oscillator retreated from overbought territory (K: 85 → 75; D: 82 → 78), cooling after the recent surge. The J-curve’s reversal below 100 aligns with short-term profit-taking. While no confirmed bearish crossover exists yet, KDJ’s retreat from extreme levels supports consolidation or mild retracement.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands recently expanded during the rally to $382, reflecting heightened volatility. The latest close near $353 resides within the upper band ($340–$370), indicating no immediate overbought pressure. However, the dip below the 20-day moving average (~$350) intraday signals short-term bearish momentum. Band width contraction would suggest reduced volatility and range-bound action, with a breach above $375 necessary to reactivate bullish volatility.
Volume-Price Relationship
Robust volume accompanied the rally from $307 to $375 (average daily volume ~28 million shares), confirming institutional participation. The 5.77% decline occurred on elevated but slightly reduced volume (23.7 million vs. 27.4 million preceding day), suggesting panic selling lacked broad follow-through. Volume divergence during the sell-off—lower than prior up days—implies unresolved bullish conviction. Sustained downside would require volume expansion below $346 to confirm bearish continuation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI moderated sharply from near-overbought levels (~67) to 55 after the sell-off, neutralizing immediate overheating risks. While RSI exited overbought territory (>70), it remains above the oversold threshold, supporting a neutral-bullish interim bias. A drop below 50 would signal bearish momentum acceleration, though current levels suggest orderly profit-taking rather than structural weakness.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the recent swing low of $294.56 (June 23) and high of $382 (June 26), the retracement zone identifies key technical levels. The 38.2% retracement at $348.60 held as intraday support during the $346.66 low, reinforcing its technical significance. The 23.6% level ($361.36) now acts as overhead resistance. Confluence with the candlestick low and Bollinger midpoint near $348 strengthens this support. A sustained break below $348 may target the 50% retracement ($338.28), while holding $348 could catalyze a rebound toward $361.
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence arises at $348–$350, where Fibonacci, candlestick support, and the 20-day MA converge, defining a critical bull-bear pivot. Divergence is observed in the MACD histogram—prior highs in price were unsupported by equivalent MACD peaks, suggesting weakening momentum. Volume divergence during the sell-off (lower than preceding rallies) tempers bearish conviction. For upside resumption, reconquering $372 on strong volume is essential, while failure at $348 may trigger deeper correction. The overall technical structure remains cautiously bullish, requiring validation through key level reactions.