Coinbase Stock Drops 4.33% as Bearish Signals Mount Across Technical Indicators

Coinbase Global (COIN) declined 4.33% in the most recent session, closing at $306 after trading between $305.10 and $315.59 on volume of 8.41 million shares. This extended the bearish momentum observed over recent weeks.
Candlestick Theory
The daily chart shows a series of bearish signals. The recent session formed a bearish continuation pattern following the August 19th long red candle (-5.82%), which broke below the $320 support. Key resistance is now established at $325 (previous swing high and 50-day MA confluence), while support sits at the $294–$297 range (May–June swing highs). A clear lower high structure has emerged, reinforcing downside bias.
Moving Average Theory
Bearish alignment is evident across key moving averages. The 50-day MA ($319.10) has crossed below both the 100-day ($315.80) and 200-day MA ($307.50), signaling a death cross – a strong bearish trend confirmation. Price is trading below all three MAs, with the 200-day MA serving as critical overhead resistance. This structure indicates sustained selling pressure across timeframes.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows accelerating negative momentum below the signal line, corroborating bearish bias. KDJ readings (K: 28, D: 35, J: 14) signal oversold territory, but both indicators lack bullish divergence against price lows, suggesting weak reversal potential. KDJ’s J-line compression near 10 could foreshadow a minor technical bounce, though within the broader downtrend.
Bollinger Bands
Bands are expanding after a contraction phase, indicating rising volatility. Price broke below the lower band ($311) on August 25th, confirming a breakdown from its consolidation range. Continued closes near or below the lower band suggest oversold conditions without immediate reversal confirmation. Band expansion often precedes sustained directional moves.
Volume-Price Relationship
Distribution days dominate recent action, notably the August 19th decline (-5.82%) on 10.3M shares and August 25th sell-off (-4.33%) on 8.4M shares. These high-volume down days validate bearish conviction. Conversely, August 22nd’s 6.52% rebound saw elevated volume (13.0M shares), but subsequent failure to hold gains revealed underlying weakness.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (41) sits in neutral territory, down from overbought levels (>70) in July but not yet oversold (<30). This aligns with KDJ’s oversold signal but lacks the extreme reading typically seen at major bottoms. The absence of bullish divergence against recent price lows tempers reversal expectations.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the June low ($145.35) and July peak ($437.00):
- 61.8% level ($294.00) was breached decisively on August 25th.
- Next critical support is the 78.6% retracement ($266.60), aligning with the May swing low ($266.46).
- Resistance now converges near the 50% level ($325.20), overlapping with moving averages and prior support.
Confluence & Divergence Observations
Confluence: The $265–$270 zone integrates multiple supports: 78.6% Fibonacci, Bollinger Bottom Band projection, and the May swing low. This area may trigger profit-taking or consolidation. Resistance confluence remains strong at $325 (Fibonacci, prior support, 50/100-day MAs).
Divergence: While KDJ signals oversold, bearish momentum remains intact per MACD and moving averages. Volume discrepancies show distribution overpowering accumulation.
Conclusion
Coinbase Global exhibits a structurally bearish setup with confirmation across trend-following indicators. Oversold readings (KDJ, near-lower Bollinger Band) suggest potential for short-term consolidation or relief bounces near critical Fibonacci support at $266–$270. However, overhead resistance ($325) is robust, and the death cross implies intermediate-term downward pressure. Investors should monitor the $266–$270 support for potential base formation, though breach below may accelerate selling toward $240–$250. The burden of proof remains on bulls to reclaim the 200-day MA ($307.50) and $325 resistance convincingly.