Coinbase Shares Slide 4.69% As Bearish Signals Converge Near $300 Support

Coinbase Global (COIN) closed at $306.69 on September 25, 2025, down 4.69% for the session amidst sustained selling pressure. The following technical analysis evaluates key indicators and price action dynamics using the prescribed framework.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions show bearish dominance, with September 25 forming a long-bodied red candle closing near its low ($306.69 vs. daily low $304.36), confirming persistent selling pressure. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged on September 22-23 when prices gapped down from $331.95 to $320.07, accelerating the breakdown below the $320 psychological support. Key resistance now resides near $318-$320 (recent consolidation zone), while critical support rests at $300-$302, aligning with the August 2025 swing low. The absence of reversal patterns like hammers or piercing lines suggests ongoing bearish control.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA (approximating $330) crossed below the 100-day MA (~$325) in mid-September, confirming intermediate-term bearish momentum. The 200-day MA near $305 provided initial support on September 25, but the price closed barely above it. The sustained trading below the 50/100-day MAs reinforces a negative medium-term bias. A confirmed close below the 200-day MA would signal potential long-term trend deterioration, while recovery above $325 is needed to alleviate downside pressure.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) remains in negative territory with the histogram expanding downward, indicating strengthening bearish momentum. KDJ oscillators show %K at 20 and %D at 28 as of September 25, entering oversold territory. However, neither indicator exhibits bullish divergence; both align with the price’s lower lows. This convergence suggests oversold conditions lack reversal confirmation, though a KDJ bullish crossover could signal short-term relief.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20-day) contracted sharply in early September, preceding the late-September volatility expansion. The September 25 close pierced the lower band ($309), marking the first such breach in three months. Historically, this signals potential exhaustion moves, but requires confirmation via a recovery candle or volume surge. Bandwidth expansion from 4% to 6% over the past week confirms rising volatility, typical of directional breakdowns.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume spikes accompanied key down days: September 19 (13.3M shares) confirmed the breakdown below $342, while September 23-24 saw elevated volumes (8.7M-8.8M shares) as $320 support failed. However, the September 25 decline occurred on reduced volume (8.8M vs. prior 8.9M), hinting at waning selling momentum near the $300 support. This divergence warrants monitoring; sustained low-volume consolidation could precede stabilization.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI closed at 29.4 on September 25, entering oversold territory (<30) for the first time since early August. While traditionally a bullish signal, RSI hit 28 during the August selloff before further downside to $297. Currently, no positive divergence exists versus price (both made lower lows). Given the asset’s volatility, RSI below 30 may indicate oversold conditions but not necessarily imminent reversal without catalyst confirmation.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the primary swing from the June 2025 low ($253.85) to July 2025 high ($419.78) yields critical levels. The 38.2% retracement ($344) was breached decisively in September, converting it to resistance. The 50% level ($307) provided tentative support on September 25, while the 61.8% retracement ($299) aligns with psychological $300 support. A sustained break below $297 would open the 78.6% level ($275), increasing bearish implications.
Concluding Observations
Confluence exists around $300-$307, where the 50% Fibonacci level, 200-day MA, and psychological support converge – a critical zone for potential stabilization. Bearish unanimity appears in moving average crossovers, MACD momentum, and volume-validated breakdowns. However, oversold signals (RSI <30, KDJ <30, Bollinger Band breach) and reduced downside volume suggest weakening bearish momentum near key support. Probabilistically, a relief bounce toward $320 resistance may emerge if $300 holds, but sustained trading below this level could trigger accelerated declines toward $275-$280. Traders should monitor reversal confirmation via bullish candlestick patterns or KDJ/MACD crossovers to time potential entry points.