Coinbase Q2 Earnings: EPS Miss, Revenue Beats

Coinbase (COIN) reported Q2 FY2025 earnings, with EPS at $0.12, a significant miss from analysts' consensus estimate of $1.25. Sales increased 3.3% YoY to $1.5 billion, but revenue missed expectations of $1.59 billion. Analysts have a Moderate Buy consensus rating with an average price target of $383.29, implying 1.5% upside potential.

Coinbase Global (COIN) reported its Q2 FY2025 earnings, revealing a significant miss from analysts' expectations. The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.12, which fell short of the consensus estimate of $1.25 per share. Despite this, the company reported a 3.3% year-over-year (YoY) increase in sales to $1.5 billion, although this figure missed the anticipated revenue of $1.59 billion.

Analysts have maintained a Moderate Buy consensus rating for COIN, with an average price target of $383.29, indicating a 1.5% upside potential. Jefferies analyst Trevor Williams, who raised his price target from $260 to $405, expects retail trading volumes to drop by 40% quarter-over-quarter but anticipates an increase in institutional take rates to offset this decline [1]. Meanwhile, Monness Crespi analyst Gustavo Gala downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy, citing valuation concerns and a need for clearer growth drivers [1].

Options traders anticipate a large move in COIN stock immediately following the earnings report, with an expected earnings move of 7.39% [1]. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COIN’s second-quarter revenues was pegged at $1.5 billion, indicating a 4.3% increase from the year-ago reported figure, while the consensus estimate for earnings was $0.83 per share [2].

The company's earnings beat history shows that COIN has exceeded estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 32.71% [2]. The Zacks Model predicts an earnings beat for Coinbase this time around due to a positive Earnings ESP (+12.05%) and a Zacks Rank #3 [2]. Factors likely to shape COIN’s Q2 results include increased trading volume, the acquisition of Deribit, and the growing emphasis on international expansion and derivatives trading [2].

Investors should closely monitor COIN's Q2 earnings call for updates on trading volumes, progress in recurring revenue, and management’s outlook for the rest of 2025. The company's strategic pivot from transaction-based revenues to more predictable subscription and service-based income is expected to enhance revenue stability. However, given the stock’s elevated valuation and below-average return on equity, potential investors might consider holding off before entering a position [2].

References:
[1] https://www.tipranks.com/news/coinbase-global-coin-is-about-to-report-q2-earnings-tomorrow-here-is-what-to-expect
[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/play-coinbase-stock-ahead-q2-172400212.html