Is Coinbase Poised for a 90%+ Upside as Crypto Rebounds and Regulators Clarify?

The cryptocurrency market is entering a pivotal inflection point in 2025, driven by macroeconomic tailwinds, regulatory clarity, and institutional adoption. At the center of this evolution is Coinbase, a company that has strategically repositioned itself to capitalize on these trends. With a diversified revenue model, expanding institutional footprint, and alignment with global regulatory frameworks, Coinbase appears uniquely positioned to deliver outsized returns as the crypto ecosystem matures.

Strategic Business Evolution: From Trading Fees to Recurring Revenue

Coinbase's 2023–2025 strategy has prioritized reducing reliance on volatile trading fees by cultivating recurring revenue streams. By 2025, 41% of Coinbase's revenue is projected to come from subscriptions and services, including Coinbase One, stablecoin yield, staking, and custody according to user statistics. This shift mirrors the business models of high-margin SaaS companies, insulating Coinbase from crypto market volatility while fostering long-term user retention.

The company's financial performance underscores this transformation. In 2024, Coinbase reported $6.2 billion in total revenue and $2.5 billion in net income, a stark recovery from losses in prior years. Its user base has also expanded significantly, with 120 million registered users in 2025 (up 25% year-on-year) and 10.8 million active monthly transactors according to user statistics. Meanwhile, assets under custody surged to $425 billion by Q2 2025, cementing Coinbase's role as a global leader in digital asset custodianship.

Institutional expansion has further accelerated growth. The acquisition of Deribit in May 2025-a Dubai-based derivatives exchange-has enabled Coinbase to offer sophisticated products to institutional clients, including perpetual futures and options according to industry analysis. This move not only diversifies revenue but also positions Coinbase to capture a larger share of the $1 trillion in institutional trading volume reported in 2024 according to market data.

Macroeconomic Catalysts: Fed Easing, ETF Approvals, and Regulatory Clarity

Coinbase's strategic evolution aligns with broader macroeconomic and regulatory trends that are fueling crypto's resurgence.

1. Federal Reserve Policy and Liquidity
The U.S. Federal Reserve's easing cycle, marked by lower interest rates and relaxed credit conditions, is creating a favorable environment for risk-on assets like crypto. As noted in Coinbase Institutional's Q4 2025 report, looser monetary policy is expected to support crypto performance for the next one to two quarters, attracting both retail and institutional capital.

2. ETF Approvals and Institutional Demand
The approval of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in 2025 has been a watershed moment for crypto adoption. These products have unlocked new demand from traditional investors, with Digital Asset Treasuries now holding a significant portion of circulating Bitcoin and Ethereum supplies. For Coinbase, this means increased trading volume and custody demand, as institutional investors seek secure platforms to manage their holdings.

3. Regulatory Frameworks and Policy Clarity
Regulatory uncertainty has long hindered crypto's mainstream adoption, but 2025 marks a turning point. In the U.S., the GENIUS Act and the anticipated CLARITY Act are establishing a clear legal framework for digital assets, reducing compliance risks for companies like Coinbase. Meanwhile, the European Union's MiCA regulation is providing a structured environment for innovation, enabling Coinbase to expand its services across the bloc.

4. Stablecoins and Payments Innovation
Stablecoins are emerging as a critical driver of crypto adoption, particularly in cross-border payments. Their low-cost, fast transaction capabilities are attracting both consumers and businesses, creating a flywheel effect for platforms like Coinbase that offer stablecoin yield and staking services.

The case for a 90%+ upside in 2025 is compelling.

The Case for a 90%+ Upside

Combining Coinbase's strategic evolution with macroeconomic and regulatory tailwinds, the case for a 90%+ upside in 2025 is compelling:
- Revenue Diversification: A shift to recurring revenue reduces exposure to crypto price swings, enhancing predictability and margins.
- Institutional Synergy: Deribit's integration and custody growth position Coinbase to capture a larger share of the institutional market.
- Regulatory Tailwinds: Clearer policies in the U.S. and EU will drive mainstream adoption, increasing user acquisition and transaction volume.
- ETF-Driven Liquidity: Institutional inflows into crypto ETFs will boost Coinbase's trading and custody services.

However, risks remain. Regulatory shifts, macroeconomic volatility, or a slowdown in crypto adoption could temper growth. Yet, given the current trajectory, Coinbase's alignment with structural trends suggests it is well-positioned to outperform.

Conclusion

Coinbase's transformation from a trading-focused exchange to a diversified crypto infrastructure provider mirrors the broader maturation of the industry. With macroeconomic catalysts, regulatory clarity, and institutional adoption converging, the company is primed to deliver returns that far exceed market expectations. For investors seeking exposure to the next phase of crypto's evolution, Coinbase represents a high-conviction opportunity.