Coinbase Extends Slide With 9.6% Six-Day Drop As Bearish Signals Converge

Coinbase Global (COIN) declined 3.11% in the most recent session, marking its sixth consecutive daily loss with a cumulative 9.60% decline over this period, reflecting sustained bearish pressure amid elevated trading volumes. The technical analysis below synthesizes multiple frameworks to assess the current market structure.
Candlestick Theory
The six consecutive bearish candles indicate strong selling momentum, with the latest session closing near its daily low (379.49 vs. low 375.26), demonstrating persistent downside conviction. Key support is established at 375.26 (today’s low), while resistance converges near 395–397 (yesterday’s low and prior consolidation zone). A close below 375.26 may trigger accelerated selling toward 360, whereas reclaiming 395 could signal near-term exhaustion.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA (approximately 365–370) recently ceded support as price crossed below it during the current downtrend. With the 100-day MA (∼330–340) and 200-day MA (∼280–290) still sloping upward, the long-term trend remains intact. However, the short-term trend is bearish, evidenced by the current price trading 4.7% below the 50-day MA. A sustained break below the 100-day MA would intensify bearish momentum, while recovery above the 50-day MA (near 385) is needed to neutralize near-term pressure.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram is negative and widening, with both signal and MACD lines accelerating below the zero line, confirming bearish momentum. KDJ shows the %K line (14.8) and %D line (22.3) entrenched in oversold territory (<20), though no bullish crossover is yet evident. While KDJ hints at potential exhaustion, MACD’s continued deterioration suggests downside may persist. Divergence is absent as both indicators align with price weakness.
Bollinger Bands
Bands have expanded significantly during the sell-off, reflecting rising volatility. Price hugs the lower band (∼375), a characteristic of strong downtrends. The 20-day moving average (mid-band) near 390 now acts as dynamic resistance. Band expansion without immediate price recovery suggests further downside remains probable before stabilization occurs.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged to 11.2M shares on today’s decline (from 8.6M yesterday), validating the breakdown. Elevated volume on down days (e.g., 14.5M shares on 2025-07-22) consistently confirms distribution. For any reversal attempt, buyers must demonstrate conviction through higher volume on up days—currently absent, undermining price sustainability.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (29.3) entered oversold territory (<30) but shows no divergence. Historically, COIN has extended declines despite oversold RSI readings (e.g., June 2025 drop to RSI 26 before rebound). While signaling potential for a technical bounce, the indicator alone is insufficient to call a bottom without corroborating bullish signals from volume or candlestick patterns.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing low of 175.00 (2025-06-11) and high of 420.98 (2025-07-22), key retracement levels are identified: 38.2% (367.88), 50% (374.49), and 61.8% (331.33). The current price (379.49) is testing the critical 50% retracement support (374.49). Confluence exists between this level and today’s low (375.26), making 367–375 a decisive support zone. Failure here may trigger a slide toward the 61.8% retracement (331.33).
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence of bearish signals is evident: Volume validates the breakdown, MACD/KDJ show no reversal signs, and price tests key Fibonacci/psychological support at 375. The lone counter-signal—oversold RSI—lacks confirmation from other oscillators. Bullish divergence is absent across all indicators. Should 375 fail, the next convergence zone emerges at 367 (38.2% Fibonacci + Bollinger lower band projection). A reversal would require reclaiming 395 with supportive volume—unlikely near-term given bearish momentum alignment.