Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index Remains in Negative Premium, Spot Bitcoin ETFs See Continued Outflows

The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has traded at a negative premium for three consecutive days as of Jan. 9, currently at -0.0837%, according to Coinglass data. This marks the 25th out of 26 days over the past month with a negative reading, signaling ongoing U.S. selling pressure and reduced institutional interest in the exchange. A negative premium typically indicates capital outflows or shifting risk appetite, especially in a consolidating market.

Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $398.95 million in net outflows on Thursday, extending their negative streak to three days. BlackRock's IBIT led the outflows with $193.34 million, while Fidelity's fund lost $120.5 million. Analysts attributed these outflows to portfolio rebalancing, profit-taking, and short-term caution amid market consolidation rather than a fundamental decline in institutional demand.

Over the past three days, Bitcoin ETFs have lost roughly $1.12 billion in net outflows, nearly erasing inflows from the first two trading days of 2026. Spot Ethereum ETFs also reported $159.17 million in outflows on the same day, with BlackRock's ETHA seeing $107.6 million exit. This reflects broader caution across crypto ETFs, though Ethereum ETFs have not seen as severe declines as their Bitcoin counterparts.

Why Did This Happen?

Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, noted that the recent outflows reflect short-term market dynamics. "The crypto market remains in a resilient consolidation phase with Bitcoin hovering just above $90K while being supported by underlying institutional accumulation," he said. This suggests that institutional investors remain active but are currently adopting a more cautious approach to position themselves ahead of potential macroeconomic catalysts.

The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index serves as a gauge for U.S. capital flows and institutional investment activity. A negative premium means that Bitcoin's price on Coinbase is below the global average, typically reflecting heavy U.S. selling pressure or reduced appetite for risk. This is in contrast to a positive premium, which signals strong buying interest, active inflows from regulated funds, and overall bullish sentiment.

How Did Markets React?

Bitcoin's price rose 0.26% in the 24 hours leading to the report, trading at $90,660. It briefly dipped below $90,000 earlier on Thursday. Ethereum, however, declined 0.54% to $3,104. The modest price movement suggests that the market is not experiencing panic selling but is instead consolidating ahead of key price levels and potential regulatory developments.

Spot XRP ETFs reversed their negative trend on Thursday, posting $8.72 million in inflows after $40 million in outflows on Wednesday. Spot Solana ETFs also saw $13.64 million in inflows, marking the eighth consecutive positive day. This contrast in ETF flows highlights the uneven distribution of investor sentiment across different crypto assets, with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs currently outperforming others.

Market analysts are also keeping a close watch on macroeconomic signals, including Federal Reserve policy shifts, which could influence Bitcoin's ability to break out of its current consolidation phase. Short-term caution appears to be driven by uncertainty around key price levels and potential volatility if broader market conditions shift.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts have flagged key resistance levels near $95K for Bitcoin as a potential breakout point to watch. If Bitcoin can break through this level, it could signal renewed institutional demand and bullish momentum. Conversely, a failure to hold the current consolidation range may trigger renewed selling pressure or increased risk aversion.

Regulatory developments remain a key focus for market participants. Recent progress in a Senate bill to structure the crypto market and ongoing discussions between Wall Street and crypto industry groups highlight the potential for policy shifts that could impact market dynamics. A final decision on the bill is expected in the coming week, with bipartisan support seen as critical for its passage.

In the broader market context, U.S. macroeconomic data, including the December employment report due on Jan. 9 and the consumer price index on Jan. 13, will be closely monitored for signals on interest rate policy. These factors could influence risk appetite and investor behavior in both crypto and traditional asset markets.

Bitcoin ETF flows have also become a key barometer for demand. So far in 2026, ETFs have seen mixed inflows, with some days of net outflows followed by brief periods of inflows. The market remains sensitive to policy uncertainty and risk-off trading, which can quickly shift sentiment in either direction.