COIN Surges 7.5% as Options Frenzy and ETFs Ignite Short-Term Bullish Momentum

Summary
• Coinbase Global (COIN) rockets 7.55% intraday to $254.39, breaking above 30D MA at $253.90
• Leveraged ETF CONL surges 14.96%, outpacing COIN’s move as retail options volume hits 3.6M shares
• Bollinger Bands signal oversold rebound with RSI at 28.35 and MACD (-12.99) near signal line crossover
Today’s COIN rally reflects a perfect storm of technical re-entry demand and leveraged ETF amplification. With the stock trading 7.5% above its 52W low of $142.58 and 12.6% below its 52W high of $444.64, the move suggests short-term traders are capitalizing on a potential mean reversion setup. The $246.53 intraday low and $255.01 high frame a volatile 3.8% range, with options volume surging to 3.6M shares as traders bet on continuation.

Options Gamma Squeeze and ETF Amplification Drive COIN’s Volatility Spike
The 7.55% intraday surge in COIN is driven by a combination of leveraged ETF flows and options gamma-driven buying. The GraniteShares 2x Long COIN ETF (CONL) surged 14.96%, amplifying retail demand for directional exposure. Simultaneously, options data reveals a gamma squeeze: 2860 contracts of the COIN20260109C255 call option (strike $255, delta 0.495) traded with $1.69M turnover, indicating aggressive short-term bullish positioning. The RSI at 28.35 and MACD (-12.99) near signal line (-12.71) suggest a potential oversold rebound, while the 200D MA at $286.04 remains a critical resistance. This move appears to be a classic short-covering rally rather than fundamental-driven optimism.

Financial Exchanges Sector Mixed as ICE Gains 2.33% Amid COIN’s Volatility
While COIN’s 7.55% rally dominates attention, sector leader Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rose 2.33% on the same day, reflecting broader market optimism toward financial infrastructure. However, the disparity in magnitude—COIN’s 7.55% vs. ICE’s 2.33%—highlights divergent momentum within the Financial Exchanges sector. This suggests COIN’s move is more tied to speculative options activity and leveraged ETF flows than a sector-wide trend. Investors should monitor ICE’s performance as a barometer for sector-wide risk appetite.

High-Leverage ETFs and Gamma-Driven Options for Short-Term COIN Exposure
• 200D MA: $286.04 (above current price)
• RSI: 28.35 (oversold)
• MACD: -12.99 (near signal line)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $254.39 (near lower band at $217.89)
• Gamma: 0.022176 (COIN20260109C260) and 0.019410 (COIN20260109C265) suggest strong sensitivity to price moves
• IV: 57.88% (COIN20260109C260) and 58.82% (COIN20260109C265) indicate elevated volatility expectations
• Leverage Ratio: 57.23% (COIN20260109C260) and 84.70% (COIN20260109C265) highlight aggressive payoff potential

Top Options Picks:
• COIN20260109C260
- Code: COIN20260109C260
- Type: Call
- Strike: $260
- Expiry: 2026-01-09
- IV: 57.88% (elevated volatility)
- LVR: 57.23% (high leverage)
- Delta: 0.383 (moderate directional bias)
- Theta: -1.4358 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.022176 (strong price sensitivity)
- Turnover: $1.35M (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($267.10): $7.10/share
- Why: High gamma and moderate delta create a leveraged payoff profile ideal for short-term rallies.
• COIN20260109C265
- Code: COIN20260109C265
- Type: Call
- Strike: $265
- Expiry: 2026-01-09
- IV: 58.82% (elevated volatility)
- LVR: 84.70% (high leverage)
- Delta: 0.285 (moderate directional bias)
- Theta: -1.1757 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.019410 (strong price sensitivity)
- Turnover: $686.87K (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($267.10): $2.10/share
- Why: High leverage ratio and IV make it a speculative play on continued momentum.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider COIN20260109C260 into a break above $255.01. For a conservative approach, use CONL (14.96% gain) to hedge directional exposure.

Backtest Coinbase Global Stock Performance
The backtest of Coinbase's (COIN) performance after an 8% intraday surge from 2022 to the present shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 50.87%, the 10-Day win rate is 51.95%, and the 30-Day win rate is 51.52%, indicating that COIN tends to perform well in the short term following the surge event. The maximum return during the backtest period was 13.59%, which occurred on day 56 after the surge, suggesting that COIN can offer significant gains but with some volatility.

COIN’s 7.5% Rally: A Gamma-Driven Short-Term Play with Clear Risk Parameters
The 7.55% intraday surge in COIN reflects a short-term gamma-driven rally amplified by leveraged ETFs and options positioning. While the RSI at 28.35 and MACD near signal line suggest a potential oversold rebound, the 200D MA at $286.04 remains a critical resistance. Investors should monitor ICE’s 2.33% gain as a sector benchmark and watch for a break above $255.01 to confirm continuation. For now, the COIN20260109C260 and CONL ETF offer high-leverage entry points, but volatility remains elevated with IV above 57%. Watch for $255.01 breakout or 200D MA retest as key near-term signals.