COIN Preview: Is Coinbase Still Riding the Crypto Wave?

Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN) is set to report fourth-quarter earnings after the market closes today, with investors closely watching whether the company can match the explosive crypto-driven gains seen in Robinhood’s recent report. Analysts expect earnings per share (EPS) of $2.11 and revenue of $1.84 billion, both of which represent significant growth compared to the prior year’s EPS of $1.04 and revenue of $954 million.

With the recent surge in crypto trading activity following President Trump’s election victory and regulatory shifts favoring the industry, investors are eager to see whether Coinbase can capitalize on these tailwinds. However, concerns over altcoin exhaustion, competition, and trading fee sustainability could temper expectations.

Robinhood’s Crypto Surge Sets High Expectations for Coinbase

Robinhood’s Q4 earnings report showed crypto trading revenue skyrocketing 700% year-over-year, helping drive a 200% increase in total transaction-based revenues. Given that Robinhood saw such immense trading volume growth, Coinbase investors are hoping for a similarly strong performance.

Analysts estimate that Coinbase’s total trading volume for Q4 reached $216 billion, up from $185 billion in Q3 and $154 billion in Q4 2023. However, this is still well below the $312 billion peak in Q1 2023, when the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs fueled heightened crypto interest.

Key Metrics and Themes to Watch

1. Trading Volume and Revenue Mix

- With crypto trading still accounting for the majority of Coinbase’s revenue, investors will be looking to see how Q4 volumes compare to expectations.

- Analysts are forecasting a 93% year-over-year revenue increase to $1.84 billion, largely driven by trading.

- Retail trading take rates will be closely watched, as Coinbase’s fees remain significantly higher than competitors like Robinhood.

2. Stablecoin Revenue Growth

- Coinbase earns revenue from USD Coin (USDC), a stablecoin pegged to the U.S. dollar, which has been growing in importance.

- Mizuho notes that stablecoins now make up 20% of Coinbase’s total revenue, and USDC’s market cap has been rising.

- Subscription and services revenue, including stablecoin-related fees, is expected to reach $611 million, up from $375 million a year ago.

3. Regulatory Tailwinds Under Trump’s Administration

- Coinbase has been battling the SEC over allegations that it operates an unregistered securities exchange.

- Analysts believe that with Trump’s crypto-friendly stance, the SEC may drop or settle its case against Coinbase, opening the door for expanded trading options.

- The appointment of pro-crypto regulators and a shift toward making the U.S. the "crypto capital of the world" could provide a long-term valuation boost for Coinbase.

4. Profitability and Cost Management

- Analysts are watching Coinbase’s EBITDA margins, as operating expenses remain a key factor.

- The company has been streamlining costs while expanding its blockchain services, which could contribute to higher-than-expected profitability.

Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Revisions

Wall Street remains generally bullish on Coinbase, but analysts have differing views on the sustainability of crypto trading volumes and potential regulatory risks.

- Citigroup raised its price target to $350, maintaining a bullish outlook on Coinbase’s role in the evolving crypto landscape.

- OpCo reduced its price target from $358 to $334 but still sees upside potential due to regulatory clarity, institutional crypto adoption, and Coinbase’s blockchain leadership.

- Mizuho upgraded the stock to neutral from underperform, citing strong Bitcoin adoption and stablecoin growth but also warning about potential take rate compression over time.

- Needham lowered its price target from $420 to $330, noting altcoin weakness and lower retail trading activity, which could dampen Q1 and Q2 2025 revenue.

Market Reaction and Valuation

Coinbase stock has had a strong run since Trump’s election victory, rising 40% to $272, in line with Bitcoin’s 42% gain over the same period. However, COIN shares are down about 15% from their 52-week high set in December.

The stock currently trades at approximately 25 times 2026 EBITDA estimates, which is higher than legacy financial firms but lower than some high-growth fintech names. Analysts see potential for further upside if Coinbase continues to expand beyond trading into blockchain services, stablecoin payments, and institutional crypto adoption.

Conclusion: A Pivotal Quarter for Coinbase

Coinbase’s Q4 earnings report will be a critical test for the stock, as investors look for confirmation that crypto’s resurgence is driving sustainable long-term revenue growth. With Robinhood’s explosive crypto trading numbers setting high expectations, Coinbase will need to show strong trading volumes, robust stablecoin revenue growth, and improving profitability to maintain its rally.

Regulatory developments remain a major wildcard, with Trump’s administration providing a more favorable backdrop for crypto exchanges but also increasing competition from traditional financial firms. If Coinbase beats expectations and provides a bullish outlook for 2025, the stock could reclaim its recent highs, but any signs of slowing retail trading volumes could lead to a sharp sell-off.