COIN Plummets 2.43% Amid Deribit Acquisition Jitters and Earnings Volatility

Summary
• Coinbase Global (COIN) trades at $317.00, down 2.43% intraday after opening at $322.88
• Deribit acquisition completes, but shares underperform broader crypto sector
• Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) and 30-day earnings estimate drop of 7.3% weigh on sentiment
• Intraday range of $314.56–$323.40 highlights sharp volatility post-merger

COIN’s sharp intraday decline reflects a collision of strategic optimism and earnings pessimism. The stock’s 20.9% monthly underperformance against the S&P 500 and a Zacks Rank downgrade to 4 signal near-term headwinds. With the Deribit acquisition now finalized, investors are recalibrating expectations as earnings estimates for FY2025 contract by 7.3% and crypto derivatives competition intensifies.

Deribit Acquisition and Earnings Volatility Drive COIN's Intraday Slide
The $317.00 level marks a 2.43% drop for COIN, driven by a confluence of factors. While the Deribit acquisition expands Coinbase’s derivatives footprint, the market is pricing in near-term execution risks. Earnings estimates for FY2025 have fallen 7.3% over 30 days, reflecting analyst skepticism about sustaining 69.4% Q2 growth. The Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) underscores deteriorating fundamentals, with forward 12-month EPS estimates now at $7.01 (-7.8% YoY). Meanwhile, the $30 million July revenue from Deribit—offset by $10 million in incremental costs—has yet to translate into immediate EBITDA upside, leaving investors cautious.

Blockchain Sector Mixed as Robinhood Gains Momentum
The blockchain sector remains fragmented, with Robinhood Markets (HOOD) rising 1.5% as retail trading optimism resurges. COIN’s 20.9% underperformance against the S&P 500 over a month contrasts with HOOD’s resilience, highlighting divergent investor sentiment. While Coinbase’s Deribit acquisition positions it as a crypto derivatives leader, Robinhood’s focus on spot trading and regulatory clarity may explain its relative strength. The sector’s 1.2% decline over the same period underscores broader macroeconomic pressures on crypto-related equities.

Options and ETFs in Focus: Navigating COIN's Volatility
• 200-day MA: $267.40 (below current price) • RSI: 26.96 (oversold) • MACD: -10.02 (bearish divergence) • Bollinger Bands: $269.82–$438.19 (wide range)

COIN’s technicals suggest a short-term oversold condition, with RSI at 26.96 and price near the lower Bollinger Band. The 200-day MA at $267.40 offers a potential support level, but the MACD’s bearish divergence (-10.02) warns of lingering downward momentum. For leveraged exposure, the Leverage Shares 2X Long COIN Daily ETF (CONL) (-4.96% intraday) remains a high-risk/high-reward play, though its -5.22% theta decay and 0.0161 gamma suggest short-term volatility.

Top Options Picks:
• COIN20250822C325 (Call, $325 strike, 2025-08-22):
- IV: 52.29% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 49.41%
- Delta: 0.3883 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -1.2123 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0156 (strong price sensitivity)
- Turnover: $2.74M
This call option offers asymmetric upside if COIN breaks above $325, with 49.41% leverage amplifying gains. The 52.29% IV and 0.0156 gamma make it ideal for a bullish breakout.

• COIN20250822P305 (Put, $305 strike, 2025-08-22):
- IV: 54.32% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 62.10%
- Delta: -0.3017 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0152 (low time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0137 (moderate price sensitivity)
- Turnover: $282.2K
This put option provides downside protection with 62.10% leverage, ideal for a 5% bearish scenario (targeting $300.65). The 54.32% IV and 0.0137 gamma balance risk and reward.

Payoff Estimation:
- COIN20250822C325: At $300.65 (5% down), payoff = $0. At $330, payoff = $5.00 per contract.
- COIN20250822P305: At $300.65, payoff = $4.85 per contract. At $330, payoff = $0.

If $325 breaks, COIN20250822C325 offers bullish potential. Aggressive bears may consider COIN20250822P305 into a $300.65 support test.

Backtest Coinbase Global Stock Performance
After an intraday plunge of -2% for COIN, the 3-day win rate is 52.06%, the 10-day win rate is 51.70%, and the 30-day win rate is 53.31%. The average returns over these periods are positive, with a 0.80% return in the first three days, a 1.93% return in the next ten days, and a 5.59% return in the following thirty days. The maximum return during the backtest period was 12.25%, which occurred on day 59 after the intraday plunge.

Bullish Breakout or Bearish Breakdown? COIN at a Pivotal Juncture
COIN’s near-term trajectory hinges on its ability to convert the Deribit acquisition into earnings visibility. The 200-day MA at $267.40 and RSI at 26.96 suggest a potential rebound, but the Zacks Rank 4 and 7.3% earnings estimate drop signal caution. Investors should monitor the $325 resistance and $300.65 support levels, with the Leverage Shares 2X Long COIN Daily ETF (CONL) (-4.96%) as a high-risk leveraged play. Meanwhile, Robinhood’s 1.5% gain highlights divergent sector dynamics. Watch for a breakout above $325 or breakdown below $300.65 to define the next phase.